In the ever-evolving world of fantasy football, accurately predicting quarterback performance can make or break a season. This year marks the fourth annual review of my projections for the biggest hits and misses. The aim is not just to reflect on past predictions but also to refine the process for better outcomes in future seasons. Key players like Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Geno Smith, and Jayden Daniels have shown both consistency and surprises, while others such as C.J. Stroud and Caleb Williams faced significant challenges. This analysis delves into what went right and what went wrong, providing valuable insights for managers looking to improve their strategies.
Kyler Murray's 2024 season with the Arizona Cardinals was nearly a perfect match for projections. Expected to throw for around 3,930 yards and 24 touchdowns, he finished with 3,851 passing yards and 21 touchdowns, slightly under but close enough. However, his rushing ability surpassed expectations, gaining 572 yards and scoring five touchdowns, significantly higher than projected. Murray’s performance underscores the importance of understanding a player's role within their team's offensive structure. His versatility as both a passer and rusher makes him an unpredictable yet valuable asset in fantasy leagues.
Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers had a standout year despite facing a new coaching staff that favored a more run-heavy approach. Projected to pass for 3,741 yards and 24 touchdowns, Herbert ended up throwing for 3,870 yards and 23 touchdowns. The rookie receivers and inconsistent wideouts did not hinder his performance; instead, Herbert managed to excel within these constraints. His adaptability and efficiency highlight the significance of considering external factors when making projections.
Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks faced a tumultuous season with changes in coaching and frequent injuries to key players. Initially expected to pass for 3,905 yards and score 25 touchdowns, Smith actually threw for 4,320 yards but only scored 21 touchdowns. The decline in touchdown rate can be attributed to the one-dimensional nature of the offense and injury issues among running backs. Despite these setbacks, Smith’s overall numbers remained strong, demonstrating the resilience required in unpredictable situations.
Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders exceeded expectations, especially in rushing yards. Projected at 3,837 passing yards and 722 rushing yards, Daniels delivered 3,568 passing yards and an impressive 891 rushing yards. This outcome reinforces the value of quarterbacks with significant rushing potential, even rookies. Daniels' performance serves as a reminder that sometimes initial projections need adjustment based on emerging trends and player capabilities.
On the other hand, C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans faced a disastrous season due to a combination of poor offensive line play and constant injuries to his receiving corps. Originally predicted to throw for 4,705 yards and 32 touchdowns, Stroud only managed 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns. The takeaway here is the vulnerability of pocket passers when key supporting players are unavailable. Patience may not always be the best strategy for such quarterbacks, especially when multiple warning signs are present.
Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears also struggled, partly due to an unfavorable coaching environment. Although he had a talented group of receivers, Williams failed to meet the high expectations set by his preseason projections. This highlights the critical role of coaching in a player’s development and performance. Not all rookie environments are created equal, and this must be factored into future evaluations.
Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings and Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers provided pleasant surprises. Darnold, projected for 3,954 passing yards and 23 touchdowns, ended up with 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns. Mayfield similarly outperformed his projections, throwing for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns. Both cases underscore the unpredictability of player performance and the importance of recognizing favorable circumstances that can lead to breakthrough seasons.
In conclusion, the 2024 fantasy football season revealed both successes and failures in quarterback projections. Players like Murray, Herbert, and Smith demonstrated the importance of adaptability and resilience, while Stroud and Williams highlighted the risks associated with certain playing styles and environments. Moving forward, managers should focus on understanding player roles, considering external factors, and recognizing the potential for unexpected outcomes. These lessons will undoubtedly enhance decision-making and lead to better results in future seasons.