Unraveling the Impact of Week 14 in Fantasy Football
NFL Players Trending Up & Down
Adam Thielen (WR – CAR) has been defying expectations at 34 years old. Since his return from a long-term hamstring injury, he has averaged an impressive 6.66 receptions and 86 receiving yards per game. As the key focus of this enhanced passing attack, Thielen is on track to make significant contributions in the final stretch of the season.During the offseason, many managers had written off Thielen's fantasy viability. Given the challenges faced by QB Bryce Young during his rookie year, it seemed unlikely that he would provide consistent wide receiver production. The addition of Xavier Legette and Diontae Johnson further cast doubts on Thielen's ability to perform in this system.However, Thielen and Young have always shared a strong rapport. At the start of the 2023 season, Young frequently targeted the reliable veteran, and Thielen consequently ranked as the WR5 in half-PPR formats over the first five weeks.Currently, Bryce Young is playing the best football of his career, and Adam Thielen is fully healthy. This combination could lead to elite fantasy production, reminiscent of the early parts of 2023. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Thielen's efficiency has remained consistent over the years. His averages of 2.10 yards per route run and 3.40 yards after the catch per reception are in line with his career averages. He has also made several crucial plays for the Panthers recently.Adam Thielen's savvy route-running and sure-handedness remain crucial elements of Dave Canales' offensive system. As Bryce Young continues to develop, he will rely heavily on the veteran wideout. This increased volume makes Thielen an excellent Flex/WR3 fantasy start option, especially in half- or full-PPR formats.
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) has been a key catalyst for the Carolina offense's recent surge. Over the past month or so, the team has scored at least 20 points in four of their five contests and has competed well against tough opponents like the Kansas City Chiefs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Philadelphia Eagles.Hubbard's efficiency metrics are outstanding. Among backs with at least 100 carries, he currently ranks ninth in rushing grade, eighth in yards after contact per carry, and ninth in yards per carry (PFF). Dave Canales has a history of putting his talented running backs in favorable situations. Rachaad White had a career year under Canales' guidance in 2023. Therefore, we can expect Hubbard's effectiveness to continue throughout the rest of the season.The main concern regarding Hubbard's long-term outlook was the potential emergence of rookie RB Jonathon Brooks. Brooks, a highly-touted prospect selected in the second round of the recent NFL Draft, was expected to see touches in the backfield. Unfortunately, he suffered a non-contact knee injury in Sunday's game against the Eagles and was sidelined again. With Brooks' ongoing health issues, Hubbard will continue to receive a significant amount of work.Hubbard is having a true breakout season. He has earned a workhorse role and is making the most of his touches. He should be regarded as a high-end RB2 from now on.
Fantasy Football Fallers
Jayden Reed (WR – GB) has been a nightmare for fantasy managers. In the Packers' Thursday Night Football matchup against division rivals Detroit, the team's supposed No. 1 WR had only one target and failed to make a catch. Reed's lack of volume has been a worrying trend, and this underwhelming performance came at a bad time for many managers.Since Week 4, Reed has failed to exceed six targets in any game. Given his efficiency on limited touches, this lack of volume is puzzling. According to PFF, he averages 2.30 yards per route run and 7.4 yards after the catch per reception. These metrics suggest that Reed is being underutilized in Matt LaFleur's system.The problem in Green Bay is the crowded wide receiver room. Players like Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks have all contributed to the passing attack. Additionally, RB Josh Jacobs and TE Tucker Kraft are also effective pass-catchers. With so many mouths to feed, it is difficult to foresee a significant increase in opportunities for Reed.Due to Reed's lack of consistent volume, he cannot be ranked among the top fantasy football wide receivers. However, the sophomore has true game-breaking ability and is likely to score a touchdown on any given play. Fantasy managers should view Reed as a highly volatile WR2/WR3 for the rest of the season.
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) has had a dreadful 2024 season. The star wideout, who was a beloved asset in the fantasy football community, has not lived up to the expectations that made him a third-round draft pick. His overall lack of efficiency has coincided with a significant decrease in volume, resulting in disappointing fantasy production.Many expected Brandon Aiyuk's season-ending ACL injury to lead to more touches for Samuel. However, he has not been able to take advantage of this opportunity. Instead, players like George Kittle and Jauan Jennings have assumed larger roles in the 49ers' offense. Both Kittle and Jennings have more receptions than Samuel.Samuel's lack of effectiveness may have contributed to his reduced role in Shanahan's system. According to PFF, he has seen a sharp decline in yards per route run, receiving grade, and yards after catch per reception compared to last year. His rushing output has also been very disappointing. He is currently on pace for career lows in yards per carry, yards after contact per carry, and elusive rating (PFF).Samuel can no longer be considered a staple in fantasy lineups. His insufficient volume greatly limits his fantasy upside. He should be ranked as a matchup-dependent WR3 for the foreseeable future.
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