Unveiling the Ups and Downs of DFS and Betting

Cash Locks (In My Opinion)

In our Week 15 DFS Best Plays (available only to DFS Pass subscribers on Saturdays), the pool of players was clear. Chuba Hubbard was a no-brainer lock, with 79% of the field playing him. But beyond that, the only true cash lock for me was Amon-Ra St. Brown. His performance in the afternoon slate was a game-changer, and he was a key reason I was able to cash this week. His floor and ceiling combo at his salary made him an excellent cash play. It wasn't about boasting but recognizing his value.

Looking back, it's astonishing to see him come in under 13% in Double-Ups. His impact was undeniable, and he showed why he was a standout choice.

Gut-Wrenching Decisions

This week, my 3RB build was tested. With Chuba in, my pool included Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, Chase Brown, James Conner, Rico Dowdle, and Brian Robinson Jr. Each of these players had a strong case. Gibbs was squeezed out due to Amon-Ra's presence and the field's likely lack of interest. Dowdle was a tough call; the matchup was good, but his ceiling seemed limited. I didn't want to go all-in on one RB game in cash.

Conner was a key pivot point. I loved the matchup and Arizona's red zone efficiency. The 5x outcome gave me an edge over Murray lineups. It was an added boost in my decision-making.

At QB, I debated between Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert. The salary was less of a factor with Conner in the mix. Herbert's matchup against the Buccaneers looked promising, but in the end, Kyler's failure and Conner's strong performance led me to choose as I did.

Playing Stone Smartt was a struggle. I didn't want to go with a punt TE, but with Herbert at QB and the field's likely interest, I stayed with him. It was a concession in my H2Hs and Double-Ups.

When it came to WRs, there was no consensus. I ruled out Adam Thielen early due to concerns about Carolina. Calvin Ridley and Brian Thomas Jr. were my top choices, but the decision was tough until lock.

The Bengals decision was the most gut-wrenching. I chose Chase Brown over Higgins and Chase, but in hindsight, it was a close call. Brown's performance had been outstanding, and I hedged my bets.

At DST, I considered PHI and ARI before settling on CLE. They were cheap, at home, and the weather conditions were expected to be rough. It was a punt play that paid off.

What Did the Field Do

Each week, it's interesting to see which players the field gravitates towards in cash style contests. We can compare roster percentages, DK outputs, and how much of their salary they utilized. It gives us insights into the collective mindset of the DFS community.

Mistakes Were Made …

Every week, we make mistakes. This week, having too much confidence in Amari Cooper feels silly now. And Calvin Ridley didn't meet expectations. But Amon-Ra St. Brown saved the day. My lineup came down to a few key players performing at lower roster percentages.

2024 Results

Each week, I'll share my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage to give you an idea of my performance. The volume of H2Hs varies depending on the slate and my weekend activities. I'll also post the "cash line" from the $25 Double-Up on DraftKings.

We've been on a roll in Double-Ups, hitting the cash line in six straight weeks. On the season, we're 10/14 in Double-Ups! It's a record I'm proud of.