Unraveling the Braves' Rotation Dynamics in 2025
The Pitcher with the Blistering Fastball
This pitcher possesses an exceptional fastball that can leave hitters guessing. His ability to induce swing and miss is truly remarkable. However, as evidenced by the 22 homers he surrendered in his last full season, he is not immune to the long ball. This played a role in his mediocre average exit velocity and barrel rate. Will he be able to maintain his velocity and dominance? Or will he start to lose something off his fastball? These are the questions on everyone's mind.His performance last season was a mixed bag. On one hand, he had that incredible fastball, but on the other, he struggled with giving up home runs. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts and whether he can continue to be a force on the mound.
The Rookie with Promise
In his rookie season with the Braves, Spencer Schwellenbach looked outstanding. He sported a 3.35 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP across 123.2 innings. He was excellent at limiting walks, avoiding barrels, and getting opposing hitters to chase his stuff. He ranked in the 90th percentile and above in each of these metrics.However, there are some things to monitor. His.225 AVG against was paired with an xBA that was 14 points higher, placing him in just the 48th percentile. He also surrenders hard hits at a 39.8% clip, placing him in just the 39th percentile. Can he continue to perform at this level or will he face a sophomore slump?
Ian Anderson: The Veteran with Potential
Ian Anderson hasn't pitched in the majors since 2022, but he put together a decent Triple-A campaign in 2024. He had a sub-4.00 ERA (3.96) in 52.1 innings across 10 starts. And let's not forget his sparkling postseason track record in 2020 and 2021, with a career 1.26 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 35.2 innings in October.If he can reclaim some of that postseason form and build on his minor league success, he could be a valuable addition to the Braves' rotation. His experience and potential make him a key part of the depth.
Bryce Elder: The Season of Struggle
This past season was a far cry from the All-Star campaign Bryce Elder put together in 2023. In 10 starts, he threw to an inflated 6.52 ERA, resulting in him spending most of his time in Triple-A Gwinnett. But he pitched well there this season with a solid 3.73 ERA.If he can continue to keep high groundball rates and capture the strong barrel rate he held a year ago, he could be a solid innings eater for the Braves in a supporting role. His potential for improvement makes him an interesting player to watch.
The Prospects: AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep
AJ Smith-Shawver has made occasional starts in the big leagues and has shown promise with his double-digit K/9 totals at every stop in his minor league career. He could be a decent-level contributor sooner rather than later.Hurston Waldrep, on the other hand, has had a mixed bag of major league starts. His 16.71 ERA in just 7.0 innings was not ideal, but he performed much better in the upper minors with a 2.92 ERA in 49.1 Double-A innings and a 3.38 ERA in 40.0 Triple-A innings.
The Braves have a group of promising prospects in the upper minors who could step up if needed, adding to the depth of their rotation.
The Loss of Fried and Morton
Max Fried and Charlie Morton have been workhorses for the Braves since 2021. Fried has tossed 603.0 innings with a 2.87 ERA and a.226 AVG against. Morton, while not as statistically flashy, has thrown 686.1 innings with a 3.87 ERA and a.229 AVG against.Losing two pitchers of their caliber is a huge loss for the Braves. It leaves big questions about how the rotation will hold up in 2025. The Braves will need to rely on the rest of their rotation and depth to fill the void.