One of the Chargers' offensive triumphs against the Broncos in Week 6 was the absence of Pat Surtain II. The All-Pro cornerback got injured on the opening drive, and the Chargers capitalized. Now, the immensely talented Surtain aims to curtail quarterback Justin Herbert and the Chargers' passing game.

Unraveling the Impact of Pat Surtain II on the Chargers' Offense

Surtain's Performance Against the Chargers

According to Next Gen Stats, Surtain has permitted an average of 2.4 catches and 20.3 yards in his seven career matchups against the Chargers. Remarkably, he has yet to yield a touchdown while being the closest defender. He has even managed to pick off Herbert twice, including a pick-six in their initial encounter in Denver in 2021. This year, Surtain has allowed the least yards per target (4.9) among all NFL cornerbacks with at least 40 targets. This explains why he isn't frequently targeted. He shares the distinction of having the fewest targets among cornerbacks with at least 400 coverage snaps in the NFL. Since 2022, he has been targeted on just 11.7 percent of his coverage snaps against the Chargers. Whether he guards the promising rookie Ladd McConkey or the Chargers' leading receiver in touchdown catches Quentin Johnston, he has the potential to significantly disrupt Los Angeles' offense. If he achieves this, it could be favorable news for Denver's defense.

The Broncos' Pass Rush on Herbert

In the Broncos' Week 6 defeat to the Chargers, Herbert was sacked only once in the first half as Los Angeles established a 20-0 halftime lead. However, Denver managed to get to Herbert two more times in the second half as the unit held LA to just three points in the second half. The Broncos might need to apply more pressure. Herbert enters Week 16 with a 16-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He had 11 consecutive starts without an interception until his streak was broken in Week 15 against Tampa Bay. Since last season's Week 14, he has not thrown an interception against a division opponent. In fact, he is on track to lead the NFL in interception rate, with just 0.5 percent of his passes being picked off this season. The Broncos can force the talented quarterback to turn the ball over by generating pressure. Denver boasts the most sacks in the NFL entering Week 16. They also have the second-highest pressure rate (38.6) and blitz rate (38.4) in the NFL. The Chargers allow the ninth-worst pressure rate (45.8) against blitzes. Herbert has been pressured on 71 dropbacks by blitzes this year, which is the third-highest mark in the NFL. If the Vance Joseph-led group can make Herbert commit mistakes and win the turnover battle, Denver could be in a favorable position. The Broncos are 9-1 this season when forcing a takeaway and 7-0 when winning the turnover battle. In contrast, they have yet to win this season in the four games where they lost the turnover battle. The Chargers, however, rank fourth in the NFL with a plus-11 turnover margin.

Denver's Chance in the Rushing Battle

When the Chargers visited Denver, they ran past the Broncos. Led by J.K. Dobbins' 96 rushing yards, the Chargers amassed 128 rushing yards, including 69 in the first half. In the Chargers' first 10 games, their run-first offense surpassed the 120-yard mark on six occasions and crossed the 150-yard barrier on three occasions. However, since Dobbins was placed on injured reserve in late November, the Chargers' rushing attack has not been the same. In their last four games, they have rushed for fewer than 100 yards each time, which is the longest streak in Jim Harbaugh's career as an NFL or FBS head coach according to Next Gen Stats. Since Week 12, they are averaging just 18 carries per game, which is the lowest in the NFL. In Week 15 against the Bucs, they carried the ball only 11 times for 32 yards, the lowest in both carries and rush yards by any Harbaugh team in his NFL head-coaching career. They have been led by Gus Edwards in each of their last three games, but he has gained fewer than 40 yards in each of those contests. If Denver's fifth-ranked rushing defense, which allows the second-fewest yards per carry, can suppress the struggling Chargers' running game, it could tip the scales in Denver's favor. The Broncos will strive to get their own running game going in Los Angeles. They will be without Jaleel McLaughlin, who was ruled out with a quad injury, which might lead to more opportunities for rookie Audric Estime. In their last five games, the Broncos have recorded fewer than 100 rushing yards on three occasions. The coaching staff is closely examining how to achieve more success. "I would say there are some looks that we have to be better at, relative to when we're running a certain play into some tough looks where now you don't really have the leverage," Payton said on Monday. "We have to do a better job as coaches, starting with me, and having solutions when the looks aren't what you're practicing. Overall, I think it's an area that... with three weeks left in the season, we have to find more consistency there." While the Chargers' defense is tied for first in the league in points allowed, they have given up 200 rushing yards in two of their last four games, including 223 yards on Sunday against Tampa Bay. If Denver can gain the edge on the ground by limiting the Chargers and getting their own running game going, it could assist in determining which team can sustain long drives, control the field-position game, and ultimately emerge victorious.