The past few decades have presented significant hurdles for the deployment of projects in the metals and mining industry. Historically, the approach to project execution has been fraught with issues such as poor front-end project definition, misaligned incentives, constrained resources, and deeply ingrained legacy practices. The outbreak of COVID-19 further exacerbated the volatility in most industrial markets, with few markets experiencing a level of operational disruption comparable to that in mining.

Unlock the Potential of Mining Project Deployment

An Overview of Cost and Schedule Performance in Mining Capital Expenditures

Materials like copper and nickel, crucial in energy transition technologies, are expected to witness substantial demand growth. To meet this demand, significant capital expenditures are required. Our compiled dataset of 80 global mining projects shows that despite efforts, there are still significant delays and cost overruns. Only 42 percent of projects have cost overruns of less than 10 percent, and 54 percent have schedule overruns of less than 10 percent. On average, mining projects over the past decade faced real schedule delays of approximately 25 percent and real cost overruns of approximately 40 percent. Notably, predictability performance doesn't vary much between open-pit and underground projects. The size of expenditures and the type of ore extracted are the most important variables determining predictability. Large projects with more than $1 billion in capital expenditures have worse predictability performance. For example, only 8 to 10 percent of such projects avoid cost overruns and schedule delays compared to 20 percent of projects with lower capital expenditures. Copper projects underperformed compared to the broader industry, with 33 percent having real schedule delays of more than 30 percent.

Initial Assessments versus Cost Management: Common Challenges

Deviations from cost and schedule estimates often stem from poor initial budget or time assessments and poor execution. Approximately two-thirds of cost overruns and schedule delays can be attributed to poor initial assessments, with the remaining one-third related to poor execution. This is particularly true for copper, which tends to have longer schedule delays. Poor initial assessments face challenges such as a lack of standard criteria for feasibility studies, subpar management practices, failure to account for technological advances, and misaligned mindsets between owners and contractors. Execution problems (73 percent of observations) and organizational problems (65 percent) are the two most common reasons for delays and overruns, often due to a design optimization process lacking rigor and incentives. Other common challenges include technical, market, and political issues. Given the large number of projects affected, there is a need for mining owners and operators to take action.

What Winners Get Right: Intervening Early and Setting a Clear Focus

Winners in mining project deployment intervene early and focus on five aspects. Firstly, investing in rigorous feasibility studies is crucial as it's easier to influence outcomes in the early stages. Time, effort, and resources should be allocated properly. Secondly, bringing up and improving economics early allows owners and operators to evaluate each project as an independent business and make decisions based on net present value. For example, a company in a remote region improved project economics by addressing core areas for value creation. Thirdly, enabling project delivery excellence involves strengthening the stage gate process, selecting a winning team, and defining an optimized contracting strategy. A leading natural resources company achieved success during the pandemic by strengthening the owners' team and resetting contractual relationships. Fourthly, focusing on execution productivity through measures like increasing transparency and fostering collaboration can lead to better project outcomes. A mining and oil and gas sector player improved productivity by implementing project production management systems. Finally, fostering a sustainable, healthy culture enables performance by focusing on cultural health and talent development. A South African mining company filled technical skills gaps through training programs.

Fostering a Sustainable, Healthy Culture for Performance

Companies can enhance performance by focusing on cultural health and ensuring a diverse workforce. This includes transparency, talent development, consequence management, and knowledge sharing. In the face of a shrinking mining talent pool, a South African company invested in training programs, providing employees with an average of more than 60 hours of training per year. This helped fill skills gaps and enhance the value proposition for employees.The time to act is now, and the potential is huge. Conservative estimates suggest a total opportunity of $75 billion to $110 billion from copper and nickel through 2035. By moving from current industry standards to the top quartile of performance, companies can accelerate 1.0 to 1.5 years of critical production for the energy transition. As the requirements for capital deployment in new projects evolve, predictability will become more important. Owners and operators need to focus on project stages, implement robust business cases early, and enable excellent project delivery and execution productivity to enhance results and prevent capital loss.