In an eagerly anticipated matchup, the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Texas Longhorns are set to face off in the Cotton Bowl semifinal on Friday night. This game, held at AT&T Stadium, promises to be a thrilling encounter that could determine one of the finalists for the national championship. The SP+ prediction model offers valuable insights into how this high-stakes contest might unfold.

Buckeyes' Offensive Power and Defensive Challenges

The Ohio State Buckeyes bring a potent offense led by quarterback Will Howard, who has been remarkably resilient despite losing key offensive line players to injuries. His ability to navigate through pressure is bolstered by an array of talented receivers, most notably freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith. However, the Buckeyes will need to find ways to counter Texas's formidable defensive front, which has been a cornerstone of their success throughout the season.

Howard's leadership was evident in Ohio State's decisive 41-21 victory over Oregon in the Rose Bowl quarterfinals, where he orchestrated a dynamic passing game. Smith's performance in that game, with two touchdowns from seven catches totaling 187 yards, highlighted the Buckeyes' offensive prowess. Yet, the team must address potential weaknesses in their running game, as they prepare to face a Longhorn defense that excels in stopping the run. The Buckeyes' offensive versatility will be crucial in maintaining momentum against Texas's relentless defensive pressure.

Longhorns' Defensive Strength and Offense Consistency

The Texas Longhorns have relied heavily on their stellar defense, which ranks among the best nationally. Their defensive line has been particularly impressive, consistently pressuring opposing quarterbacks. Despite some inconsistencies in their offensive performance, especially in running plays, the Longhorns have shown resilience and adaptability. Quarterback Quinn Ewers played a pivotal role in leading Texas to victory in previous playoff games, showcasing his ability to deliver under pressure.

While Texas managed to secure significant victories over Clemson and Arizona State, their offensive struggles were apparent, especially in the latter game where they averaged just 1.8 yards per carry. However, the Longhorns' defense has remained a constant force, often compensating for offensive lapses. In the upcoming clash, Texas will need to balance their defensive dominance with improved offensive consistency, particularly in running plays. The Longhorns' ability to maintain this equilibrium will be critical in challenging Ohio State's powerful offense. The SP+ model projects a close match, predicting Ohio State to win by a narrow margin of 26-22, but the College Football Power Index gives Texas a slight edge in simulations. Both teams enter this historic game with everything on the line, making it a must-watch event for college football fans.