The latest college basketball season has shattered many expectations about which teams will dominate in March. Week 11 was particularly tumultuous, with 19 of the AP Top 25 teams suffering losses over the past seven days. Despite this upheaval, history suggests that the new poll might not reflect significant changes, especially considering ranked teams beating each other or losing close games to potential NCAA Tournament contenders. Let’s delve into the latest projection for the new AP Top 25, set to be released tomorrow.

Shifting Fortunes in Key Conferences

The Big 12 and SEC conferences have seen dramatic shifts in team performance, altering their standings and prospects for the upcoming tournament. Iowa State, initially a strong contender, faced unexpected challenges that could impact its ranking. Meanwhile, SEC teams showcased both resilience and vulnerability, leading to unpredictable outcomes within the conference.

In the Big 12, No. 2 Iowa State emerged victorious against No. 9 Kansas by a comfortable margin, solidifying their position as top dogs in the conference. However, they faltered in a subsequent game against West Virginia, where guard Javon Small capitalized on Iowa State’s lackluster effort, scoring crucial points in the final minutes. This loss likely costs them a spot in the rankings but could have been worse had other top teams not also stumbled. The SEC displayed its depth with shocking upsets like No. 4 Alabama’s home defeat to No. 21 Ole Miss and No. 5 Florida’s narrow loss to Missouri. While No. 1 Auburn remains undefeated in league play, the intense competition within the SEC promises more surprises ahead.

Gonzaga Stumbles and Michigan State Triumphs

Outside these key conferences, Gonzaga and Michigan State experienced contrasting fortunes. Gonzaga faced an unprecedented week, dropping two games and raising questions about their tournament seeding. On the other hand, Michigan State secured two wins, including a crucial victory over Illinois, further cementing their dominance in the Big Ten.

Gonzaga, usually dominant in the WCC, suffered back-to-back losses this week. They fell in overtime to Oregon State and were outplayed by Santa Clara, who delivered a high-scoring victory led by Tyeree Bryan’s sharpshooting. Although these losses won’t severely damage Gonzaga’s NCAA Tournament resume, they may affect their seed line. Conversely, Michigan State maintained its winning streak, improving to 16-2 overall and 7-0 in the Big Ten. Their Sunday win over Illinois, despite the Illini’s leading scorer Kasparas Jakucionis being hampered by foul trouble, underscores the Spartans' resilience. This victory should propel them into the top 10, rewarding their consistent performance throughout the season.