Football
College Football Playoff: The Reality of Blowouts and Competitive Games
2025-01-18

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) showcased a series of lopsided victories, prompting discussions among analysts and fans alike. ESPN host Scott Van Pelt and football analyst Tim Hasselbeck delved into the implications of these blowout games, reflecting broader conversations happening across social media and sports bars. The average winning margin for home teams was 19.3 points, with some games seeing even larger disparities. Notably, Penn State's victory over SMU by 28 points and Ohio State's win against Tennessee by 25 points were particularly one-sided. Even Texas's 14-point win over ACC champion Clemson seemed decisive.

While the debate raged on about whether Indiana and SMU deserved their CFP at-large bids, the reality is that such blowouts are not uncommon in postseason football. Comparing data from the CFP and NFL playoffs since 2014 reveals striking similarities. Over 40 CFP games, the average margin of victory was 17.5 points, while in the NFL, it was 11.1 points across 124 playoff games, including 10 Super Bowls. These numbers suggest that, regardless of the round or location, postseason football is just as likely to produce a competitive game as it is a blowout. Fox college football analyst Joel Klatt echoed this sentiment, pointing out that large margins have been a recurring theme in both college and professional football.

The presence of blowouts in the CFP should not overshadow the merit of participating teams. Indiana coach Curt Cignetti's post-game comments highlighted the challenges faced by his team, yet their inclusion in the CFP was well-earned. Despite the criticism, the statistical evidence shows that close games and blowouts are equally prevalent in both college and NFL playoffs. This underscores the unpredictability and excitement inherent in postseason football. Ultimately, the true value lies in the opportunity for teams to compete at the highest level, fostering growth and resilience in players and programs alike.

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