The nightmare scenario has indeed landed right on the College Football Playoff selection committee’s doorstep. There was a glimmer of hope for an upset-free conference championship weekend, envisioning a drama-free 12-team bracket with the committee simply cutting and pasting the penultimate playoff rankings. However, Clemson’s victory over SMU shattered those dreams. Trailing by 17 points at halftime and again in the third quarter, the Tigers managed to outgain their opponents by 143 yards and secure a miraculous 56-yard field goal as time expired to emerge victorious with a 34-31 score. Had Clemson won convincingly, the committee could have easily chosen three-loss Alabama over the Mustangs as the bracket’s last at-large team, given their wins against Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri, and LSU. But a narrow, highly competitive loss to a ranked team has completely changed the dynamics of this controversial decision and significantly increased the odds of outrage dominating Sunday’s selection process.

SMU's Resilience and Alabama's Setback

In the end, it seems likely that SMU will stay in the field while Alabama is nudged out. While Alabama may have better wins on paper, SMU can boast two losses, both to ranked teams by a combined five points. They also have a remarkable nine-game winning streak, with six wins against bowl teams. Additionally, they have only two Power Four wins decided by single digits and hold a place alongside Oregon as the only Power Four teams to go unbeaten in conference play. This resilience and overall performance give SMU a strong case to remain in the playoff picture.

Oregon's Dominance

Maybe the Ducks will finally stop flying under the radar after their impressive 45-37 victory over Penn State to complete a perfect run through the Big Ten. Their wins against the Nittany Lions, Ohio State, and Boise State make them an absolute no-brainer No. 1 in the playoff rankings. Oregon's consistent performance and ability to handle tough opponents have solidified their position at the top.

Georgia's SEC Triumph

The Bulldogs outlasted Texas in a thrilling 22-19 overtime win to capture the SEC and one of the top two playoff seeds. Beating the Longhorns twice in one year is a remarkable achievement for Georgia. It showcases their tenacity and ability to rise to the occasion in crucial moments. This victory gives them a strong foothold in the playoff race and positions them as one of the favorites to win it all.

Boise State's Winning Streak

Behind 206 yards from running back Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos beat UNLV for the second time this year and secured an opening-round bye into the quarterfinals. Boise State's 11-game winning streak since losing 37-34 to Oregon in September is a testament to their consistency and ability to perform when it matters. They have built a solid reputation and are a force to be reckoned with in the playoff picture.

Arizona State's Hot Streak

Clemson's win was a huge gift for the Sun Devils, who would have been one of the bottom two seeds without finishing as one of the top four conference champions. The Sun Devils have won six in a row, three against ranked competition, and seven of eight overall. Their recent form has propelled them into the playoff as one of the hottest teams in the bracket, adding to the excitement and competitiveness of the postseason.

Penn State's Close Call

The Nittany Lions played Oregon tight enough to land in the coveted No. 5 spot. This performance earned them a date with Clemson in the first round and then a matchup with Arizona State in the quarterfinals. Both of their losses came by a touchdown, highlighting their competitiveness and ability to be in the thick of the playoff race.

Notre Dame's Strong Position

The Fighting Irish have been set to play host in the opening round since topping Southern California to end the regular season. Their dominance on both sides of the ball is evident, as they ended the regular season with the largest scoring differential in the FBS and were the only team in the country to rank in the top five nationally in scoring offense and defense. This gives them a significant advantage as they prepare for their playoff matchups.

Texas' Ranking Drop

A lack of marquee wins has led to Texas' drop down the rankings. They own no wins against ranked competition and just one victory, last week against Texas A&M, against an opponent with more than seven wins. This leaves them projected to swap spots with Georgia from the penultimate rankings and face Indiana in the postseason. It will be interesting to see how they perform in this new position.

Tennessee's Defensive Prowess

Tennessee's defense has been a force to be reckoned with, holding all but two opponents to under 362 yards of offense. They rank fourth nationally in scoring and yards allowed per play, demonstrating their ability to shut down opposing offenses. This unit has what it takes to handle an Ohio State offense that struggled against Michigan, giving them confidence as they approach the postseason.

Indiana's Potential

The matchup against Texas would help finally answer one of the biggest questions from the regular season: Is Indiana good enough to compete on this stage? Their loss at Ohio State in November shows that there is still work to be done, but their dominant performances against nearly every other opponent on the schedule demonstrate their potential. If they can bring their A-game against Texas, they could make a significant impact in the postseason.

SMU's Case for a Higher Seed

Clemson could draw the No. 11 seed by virtue of the head-to-head win and the ACC championship. However, SMU has more wins overall, more wins against bowl teams, and fared better in matchups with common opponents such as Louisville and Pittsburgh. Their performance on Saturday night, especially in the second half, showed that they are the better team and deserve a higher seed in the playoff.

Clemson's Resilience

Based on his sprint around the field after Clemson’s field goal went through, Dabo Swinney doesn’t care where his team lands in the bracket. Just getting here is borderline remarkable given how poorly the Tigers looked for chunks of this season, their recent loss to South Carolina just last week, and Miami needing to drop two of three down the stretch to miss the championship game. Clemson's ability to overcome adversity and make it to the playoff is a testament to their team spirit and coaching.