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Dynasty Baseball 2025: Outfield Targets, Sleepers & Fades

2024-12-12

Image credit: Colton Cowser Photo by Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images)In the wake of Baseball America's release of their top 100 outfielders and utility players for dynasty baseball in 2025, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White delve deeper into some of the standout names on the list. Here, we'll explore various players, including those likely to enhance their value by next offseason, some sleepers worth considering, and those who might be at the peak of their value right now.

Targets

Kerry Carpenter, OF, Tigers

Over the past few seasons in the major leagues, spanning 868 plate appearances, Carpenter has demonstrated remarkable prowess. With a 136 wRC+ and 44 home runs, roughly 30 home runs per 600 plate appearances, while hitting at a.276/.338/.512 clip. Against right-handed pitchers specifically during this time, he holds the 10th-best wRC+ among hitters with a minimum of 700 plate appearances, outperforming the likes of Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. As he enters his age-27 season, Carpenter is set to deliver 25+ home runs annually within an improved Tigers lineup over the next few years. His fantasy profile closely resembles that of Anthony Santander but is three years younger. [Dylan]

Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles

Although the on-base numbers didn't meet our initial expectations, he still managed to provide strong counting stats and 24 home runs. As he approaches his age-25 season, I anticipate Cowser taking another significant step forward in 2025. He possesses a well-rounded offensive skill set, and I believe we'll see an increase in home runs, batting average, and on-base percentage. Cowser has a lot of potential, had a solid rookie season, and still has a few years until he reaches his prime. I firmly believe he could be one of the best value picks at the draft table. [Geoff]

Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Twins

Now in Triple-A, Rodriguez is on the verge of making his major league debut in 2025. He has been in the public prospect spotlight for a long time, and it's easy to forget that he'll only be 22 in February. His extreme discipline in not chasing pitches out of the zone is well-documented and is likely to lead to high on-base percentages in the majors. However, although his swing rate is one of the lowest in the minor leagues at only 31%, he actually swings at pitches in the heart of the strike zone at nearly a league average rate, suggesting that he may just need better pitches to hit. Given his 110 mph 90th percentile exit velocity in 2024 and his 108 mph in 2023 at the age of 20, he is a solid center fielder who is likely to move to a corner. Despite battling injuries in the past few years and having a below-average contact rate, translating to near 30% strikeout rates in the majors, in an on-base percentage league, he should consistently get on base at an above-average rate, nearing.370 at his peak. In batting average leagues, one needs to be more cautious if they can't handle potential.230 to.240 batting averages. But in OBP leagues, one can invest with confidence. [Dylan]

Ian Happ, OF, Cubs

An often overlooked asset in dynasty baseball, Happ isn't valued by managers in a way that aligns with his production. In the last four seasons, he has hit 20+ home runs in three of them and has stolen double-digit bases in the last two years. He has also accumulated significant counting stats, with 80+ RBIs and 80+ runs in back-to-back seasons. As he enters his age-30 season, he still has a few more years of his prime left. [Geoff]

Sleepers

Heliot Ramos, OF, Giants

Since 2022, Ramos has amassed exactly 600 plate appearances in the major leagues and has a.254/.308/.439 line with 23 home runs and six stolen bases. As he enters his age-25 season, he is expected to take another step forward, not only due to natural age-related development but also because he showed exceptional xSLG, barrel rate, and bat speed. With the expected return of Jung-Hoo Lee, Ramos is likely to move to a corner outfield position, which suits him better. Although Oracle Park may suppress hitting, Ramos should be able to hit at a.250/.320 clip with 25 to 28 home runs and a few stolen bases. [Dylan]

Braden Montgomery, OF, Red Sox

One of the key pieces in the Garrett Crochet trade for the White Sox, Montgomery's expected arrival date may have been accelerated due to his new organization. The Red Sox are stocked with talented outfielders, while the White Sox are not. Montgomery is a switch-hitting power hitter with solid plate skills and the ability to play an above-average right field. He fits the right field prototype perfectly and was one of the better hitters in a strong positional college class. Already a target in offseason FYPD drafts, his trade may have moved him up my list. [Geoff]

Chandler Simpson, OF, Rays

Simpson is a player of extremes. In 2024, he stole over 100 bases in the minors but has hit just one professional home run in his career, which was an inside-the-park job. He has one of the highest contact rates among qualified hitters in the minors while also chasing pitches at a below-average rate. Although his routes could be improved, his make-up speed has allowed him to be a near fringe-average defender capable of playing center field. It goes without saying that a player who can hit.300 in the majors with no home runs but 75+ stolen bases is a rare find. If he is given the opportunity to achieve this in a full season, he could be a potential $12 fantasy outfielder in 2025, with the potential for Juan Pierre-type seasons as he enters his prime. He isn't currently regarded as a top 100 fantasy prospect, but due to his ceiling, he definitely qualifies as a potential sleeper. [Dylan]

Matt Wallner, OF, Twins

Perhaps I'll take a chance on Wallner again for the second consecutive first half. The allure of his strong second half in consecutive seasons keeps me coming back. Wallner has exceptional power and good on-base skills. He is the very definition of a "three true outcome" player and is in many ways the successor to Joey Gallo for those seeking power and walks. Wallner may be less attractive in a traditional 5×5 roto scoring setup, but his outlier power makes him a worthwhile gamble as he enters his prime. [Geoff]

Fades

Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs

The second half was very solid for Crow-Armstrong as he started to show some potential at the plate. While I believe in his long-term skills, in the next few seasons, I view him as a marginal asset. He will surely provide some stolen bases, but there is no true 25+ home run upside or exceptional bat-to-ball or on-base ability. It's always a risky bet to bet against young major leaguers with a lot of potential due to their strong defensive capabilities, but I'm not convinced. [Geoff]

Nick Castellanos, OF, Phillies

For the second consecutive year, Castellanos hit 23 or more home runs and had 166 or more runs plus RBIs for a first-division team. The bad news is that as he enters his age-33 season, he has had three consecutive seasons with essentially full seasons and has never accumulated more than 1.5 fWAR in any one campaign. He is one of the worst defenders in the league, and if not for Kyle Schwarber, the Phillies would have moved him to the designated hitter role years ago. It's not a bold prediction to identify a hitter in his mid-30s who is a near-replacement level player in real life and avoid him in dynasty leagues, especially when it comes to deep left field plays. [Dylan]