With the conclusion of turf racing in the Bluegrass for 2024, the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs emerges as a significant event. It offers a last opportunity for horses to compete for added money before they make their next moves. Some may stay local and race on Tapeta at Turfway, while others will ship south to places like Fair Grounds in search of better opportunities.

Attracting a Field of Eight

The Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes attracted a field of eight expected starters. However, Telescopic ran on Thursday and will be scratched, leaving only one outsider, Will Take It, based on the fair odds. Dashman is the morning-line favorite, but any one of the five other horses could potentially become the favorite. This includes the beaten King’s Plate favorite My Boy Prince and Herchee.

Inside Horses and Herchee's Potential

I would prefer to see one of the two inside horses favored. Dashman will be starting from post two with the scratch of Telescopic. Among the logical runners, Herchee stands out. He is making his second start after a short layoff and will be stretching out to 1 1/16 miles after four one-mile starts. The Brisnet Pace Ratings suggest that he can use his tactical speed from the outside to secure a premium position without any issues.

My Boy Prince - A Case of Form Cycle

My Boy Prince is the horse that I am least interested in. There is no doubt about his talent, but the form-cycle seems to be working against him. It will be interesting to see how he performs in the upcoming campaign and if he can reset and find his form.

Price Perspectives and Exotics

From a price perspective, Ak Sar Ben Derby and Piper’s Factor are not out of the question. Ak Sar Ben Derby has speed to chase, and Piper’s Factor has a win over yielding turf. Keeping an eye on the precipitation situation could be crucial in determining the payout potential with Piper’s Factor. If Herchee performs better than the fair odds, it would be a win bet. Otherwise, I will consider the exacta probables, keeping in mind that My Boy Prince is a complete toss for me, while Ak Sar Ben Derby or Piper’s Factor could be part of the exotics at double-digit odds.