HorseRacing
"Geir Stabell's 2025 US Horse Picks for the Kentucky Derby"
2024-12-16
Last month, Kentucky candidate Bullard (Umberto Rispoli) achieved a remarkable victory in the G3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar. This win has sparked excitement among horse racing enthusiasts and has positioned Bullard as a strong contender in the upcoming Kentucky Derby. Let's take a closer look at the ten US-based horses that international ratings expert Geir Stabell expects to leave their mark in 2025.

Uncover the Top US-Based Horses Set to Shine in 2025

ACCURACY - Michael McCarthy (trainer)

The three-year-old filly, 3f Arrogate - Bickersons, delivered stunning performances in the fall. She won a maiden by an astonishing 15 lengths at Santa Anita and an allowance heat by 7¼ lengths at Del Mar. Although it's challenging to determine exactly who she beat in these mile races, her potential to dominate better rivals in the future is undeniable. Her dam's success in the G2 Forward Gal and second-place finish in the G1 Spinaway add to her pedigree.

Her early performances suggest a horse with great promise and the ability to excel in future races. It will be interesting to see how she continues to develop and whether she can live up to the expectations set by her past victories.

BOOK’EM - Bret Calhoun

2f Tiz The Law - Flummoxed has already shown stakes quality form. In November, he completed a hat-trick at Churchill Downs with an 11-length victory in an allowance heat over a mile. Making all the way, he quickened away in the straight and left his rivals in the dust, who had just won easy maiden races at the same venue. His sharp time and speed indicate that he has the potential to go the distance.

As a half-brother to Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Discreet Lover, trying him over further distances is an enticing prospect. His performance history suggests that he is a horse with a lot of talent and the ability to perform well in various race conditions.

BRILLIANT BERTI - Cherie DeVaux

With five wins from seven starts, including a notable victory in the American Derby (a Listed race at Churchill Downs in June) and a G3 at Keeneland, Brilliant Berti is a young turf talent ready to take on older horses next year. With barnmate More Than Looks retired, it's logical to expect to see Brilliant Berti in top-level mile events.

His trainer, known for his impressive work, may have other options as well. Races like the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs, the Manhattan at Belmont, and the Arlington Million at Colonial seem to suit his style. His ability to perform well in different races and against different opponents makes him a horse to watch in 2025.

BULLARD - Michael McCarthy

Citizen Bull leading the way, Bullard charging powerfully from off the pace, just like he did when winning impressively on his second start last month in the G3 Bob Hope at Del Mar. His strength on the gallop-out at Del Mar, where he beat an odds-on Baffert colt on debut, is a testament to his potential.

Trainer McCarthy sees him as a two-turn horse, and he will likely love added distance. Bullard's performance in the G3 Bob Hope Stakes has made him a live Kentucky Derby contender, and his future in the racing world looks very promising.

DEEP MANHATTAN - Cherie DeVaux

With one run and one win, Deep Manhattan made an impressive debut over 8½ furlongs on turf at Fair Grounds in November. Coming from just off the pace, he won the 11-runner race by five lengths from another interesting newcomer, Tom's Magic. His victory shows that he has the ability to perform well in his first races and sets the stage for more success in the future.

Cherie DeVaux's team has been on an upward trajectory this year, and Deep Manhattan is expected to play a significant role in 2025. As a half-brother to G1 runner-up Bookrunner, he has the pedigree to succeed at the highest level.

HOWARD WOLOWITZ - Jose D'Angelo

After an unlucky ninth-place finish at the Breeders' Cup, Howard Wolowitz produced a career-best performance to beat the in-form Run Carson in the Holiday Cheer Stakes at Turfway Park. This victory shows his ability to improve and perform well in challenging races.

As a young, talented runner, he is expected to make a big impact in the sprint division on the lawn and over the synthetics. His potential to continue to develop and improve makes him a horse to keep an eye on in 2025.

FULL SERRANO - John Sadler

Experienced clockers had high hopes for Full Serrano before the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, and he did not disappoint. He improved markedly on his previous form to win solidly from Met Mile runner-up Post Time. This performance indicates that he has the ability to perform well in high-level races.

He is likely to try the 10-furlong distance again in 2025 and has his sights set on the Pegasus World Cup. With the older division on the west coast looking weak, Full Serrano is ready to do some damage as a six-year-old.

MONTALCINO - Cherie DeVaux

Montalcino narrowly lost as an odds-on favourite after a seven-month layoff in the recent Thanksgiving Classic at Fair Grounds. However, his performance on that day was affected by his edginess, and he still showed great potential as an exciting young sprinter.

He beat a rival who went on to win his next two races on debut at Saratoga and was even more impressive winning by six lengths in a seven-furlong Keeneland allowance race in April. His fractions in that race were similar to those of Federal Judge in the G2 Phoenix, suggesting his ability to handle different race conditions.

SHE FEELS PRETTY - Cherie DeVaux

Trainer Cherie DeVaux has high hopes for She Feels Pretty, who impressed with a six-length win over British-trained Soprano in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland. She is set to aim for a Breeders' Cup race in 2025, with the BC Mile being a strong possibility.

Her pedigree, as a daughter of BC Mile winner Karakontie, gives her the potential to compete against the best. In the short term, she could run in the G1 American Oaks on Santa Anita's opening day card on Dec 26, and her future in the racing world looks very bright.

SIERRA LEONE - Chad Brown

Sierra Leone improved significantly to beat Fierceness in the Breeders' Cup Classic, despite the track not being in his favor. His ability to come from way back and win shows his tenacity and determination.

He is now aiming for the Saudi Cup, a stamina test that suits his style. After that, he will face only Fierceness (who underwent elective ankle surgery since the Breeders' Cup and will miss early targets) in the older division back home. Sierra Leone's performance in the Breeders' Cup Classic has put him on the map as a horse to watch in 2025.

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