Uncover the Horses Likely to Win This Racing Week
Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs
In general, Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) alumni often perform well when returning a few weeks later for the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. Just look at the past examples - in 2022, Curly Jack improved from fifth in the Juvenile to second in the Kentucky Jockey Club. In 2020, Keepmeinmind, who finished third in the Juvenile, won the Kentucky Jockey Club. And in 2018, Signalman went from third in the Juvenile to first in the Kentucky Jockey Club. That's why I'm confident that #2 Jonathan's Way (5-2) can shine in this race. He started his career with back-to-back wins, rallying after a troubled start to dominate a six-furlong maiden special weight and then winning the one-mile Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs in decisive fashion. However, he faltered at a short price in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, finishing seventh. But even in defeat, he earned a respectable 87 Beyer Speed Figure and a sharp 99 Brisnet Speed rating. Since then, he has been working out quickly, including a bullet five furlongs in :58 4/5, and he has every chance to rebound while dropping in class and returning to Churchill Downs.
Jonathan's Way has the talent and experience to make a strong showing in the Kentucky Jockey Club. His previous wins and close calls give him the confidence and determination to succeed on the track. With the right conditions and a bit of luck, he could be the one to cross the finish line first.
FTBOA Florida Sire My Dear Girl S. at Gulfstream Park
A race restricted to Florida Sire Stakes-registered juvenile fillies may not be the most common place to find future Kentucky Oaks (G1) contenders, but #1 Stunner (3-5) might just be the one. She has done little wrong in three starts against non-state-restricted competition. In her debut sprint at Saratoga, she finished second in a fast contest won by Senza Parole. Then, she won a similar maiden sprint at Saratoga by 6 1/4 lengths. Before that, she won the one-mile Tempted S. at Aqueduct by 3 1/2 lengths. She brings strong speed figures into the My Dear Girl and has the pedigree to shine while stretching out around two turns for the first time. So, if you're looking for a single to build multi-race wagers around, this Brad Cox-trained filly is a compelling choice.
Stunner's consistent performances and improving speed figures make her a standout in this race. She has shown that she can handle different distances and track conditions, which gives her an advantage over her opponents. With her talent and determination, she could be the one to watch in the FTBOA Florida Sire My Dear Girl S.
FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality S. at Gulfstream Park
Stretching out from seven furlongs to 1 1/16 miles is the main question facing #1 Rated by Merit (3-5) in the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality S. But his abundant talent in sprints should allow him to shine even on his two-turn debut. In his three starts at Gulfstream, he hasn't been meaningfully challenged. He debuted in a non-state-restricted maiden special weight and romped by 9 3/4 lengths with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. Then, he stepped into the Florida Sire ranks and won the six-furlong Dr. Fager S. by 6 1/4 lengths and the seven-furlong Affirmed S. by 3 3/4 lengths. Those wins yielded improving Beyers of 93 and 99, with the latter number ranking as the highest posted by any juvenile so far this year. There's enough stamina in his pedigree to suggest he can handle the longer distance, and a sharp five-furlong workout in :59 2/5 on Nov. 20 should have him ready for another peak performance. I'm confident he'll maintain his edge over #8 Neoequos (7-2), who was runner-up in the Dr. Fager and Affirmed.
Rated by Merit's speed and stamina make him a formidable contender in this race. His ability to win at different distances and his recent workouts show that he is in top form and ready to take on the challenge. With his talent and determination, he could be the one to cross the finish line first.
Hollywood Derby (G1) at Del Mar
Although the Hollywood Derby takes place in California, many of the winners come from the East Coast or Midwest. Five of the last eight winners prepared outside of California, and a sixth winner competed primarily on the East Coast before running in one prep race at Santa Anita. That's why I'm keen to support #4 Carson's Run (3-1) in this year's Hollywood Derby. The 2023 Summer (G1) winner has been on a roll lately, winning the Tale of the Cat S., Saratoga Derby (G1), and Jockey Club Derby (G3) in addition to finishing second in the Nashville Derby (G3). Carson's Run has proven effective over distances from one mile to 1 3/8 miles, so the 1 1/8-mile trip of the Hollywood Derby should suit him just fine. There appears to be enough pace entered in the Hollywood Derby to set up Carson's Run's typical homestretch rally. I'm optimistic that Carson's Run will swoop past the field to secure his third Grade 1 win.
Carson's Run's recent wins and consistent performances make him a strong contender in the Hollywood Derby. His ability to handle different distances and his track record of success give him the confidence and determination to succeed on the big stage. With the right conditions and a bit of luck, he could be the one to cross the finish line first and add another Grade 1 win to his resume.
Now it's your turn! Who do you like this week?*******Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there’s a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.) J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.