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Horse Racing's Future: Insights from Craig Bernick

2024-11-18

In the second part of our in-depth series exploring the future of horse racing amidst concerning economic indicators, we had the privilege of speaking to leading breeder Craig Bernick, the president of the Glen Hill Farm operation. The year 2000 marked a significant milestone, serving as a useful demarcation when it comes to horse racing's economic trends. Since then, various aspects such as the nation's foal crop, the number of races run annually, US pari-mutuel handle, the number of operating trainers, and the number of operating tracks have all been on a downward path. To gain a better understanding, the TRC engaged with several key figures from different sectors of the industry. In this installment, we continue our exploration with Craig Bernick.

Unraveling Horse Racing's Economic Challenges with Craig Bernick

Breeding and Racing: The Core of Horse Racing

Craig Bernick emphasizes that horse racing has become overly sales-oriented instead of focusing on the essence of the sport. "We've shifted our focus from racing to selling," he states. "Horse racing should regain its status as the raison d'être. When the core product is healthy, there will be more horses available for racing to prove their worth, class, and durability. In the past, it was about winning races and achieving black type. Now, it's more about potential and looks rather than race-day performance."Bernick is also concerned about the industry's trend towards dominance by a few major players at the top. "For breeders, consolidation leads to a smaller foal crop. This, in turn, results in a concentration towards better horses, bigger racetracks, and more significant racedays. Greed may be a harsh word, but that's what's happening," he explains.

Supply and Demand Dynamics in Breeding

According to Bernick, the breeding industry's state can be attributed to simple supply and demand principles. "Commercial breeders are in it to make money, and they breed horses they think will be profitable. It's not a complex matter," he adds. The horses that are in demand are those chosen for their looks, potential, and conformation rather than their bloodlines based on race-day performance.For instance, the Bob Baffert-trained Justify colt Heartland, who ran only once and won once, was retired to stud based on the belief that he had the potential to become a G1 winner. Elliott Walden, CEO and racing manager of owner WinStar, justified the decision by highlighting the colt's pedigree, ability, and looks. However, Bernick points out that such commercial decisions reflect the diminishing importance placed on racetrack performance.He further shares his experience with Casa Creed, a former Bill Mott-trained horse that ran 36 times over seven seasons and won four G1 victories. "When he retired, very few were interested in him," Bernick says.

Commercial Influence and Stallion Market

The growing commercial influence of new stallions entering the market is another issue. "A higher percentage of horses are being bred to first-year stallions than ever before. Breeders are attracted by the mystique surrounding new horses, hoping one will become the next Gun Runner. But horses with a proven track record don't command the same prices at auctions," Bernick explains.When it comes to the future of the sport, Bernick believes the national foal crop is unlikely to grow. "Every breeder I talk to is aiming to reduce output and improve quality. Mike Levy predicted around 14,000-15,000 foals ten years ago, and that doesn't seem so far-fetched now," he says.To address the issues, Bernick emphasizes the need to start with racing. "We need to revise and streamline the stakes program. When you cut the foal crop but don't reduce graded races, you create a problem," he states.

Improving Race Planning and Middle Market

Better race planning can stimulate the middle market. "There are many graded and maiden races, but many horses are of mediocre quality. There aren't enough condition, handicap, or qualified allowance races for horses that are better than claimers but not stakes horses. This is an area where horses can develop and transition," Bernick suggests.He encourages racing secretaries to look at the European model. "We need to find a solution to keep well-bred fillies in training. If a well-bred horse is running in a certain Beyer range and not a stakes horse, it should be able to run in condition or handicap races to protect them from being claimed," he says.Bernick also criticizes the failure of the Jockey Club's stallion cap, which aimed to limit the annual breeding of stallions. "I was fully in favor of the stallion cap. It would have been a great benefit to the industry. It's disappointing that it didn't work out," he adds.Ultimately, Bernick believes the reinvigoration of the breeding industry begins with owners demanding what's fashionable. "Markets can be irrational for a long time, but you need to stay solvent. Just like how the perception of tuna changed, the horse business is also subject to such shifts," he concludes.• In Part 3 of this series, TRC speaks to Tina Bond, president of the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association (NYTHA)Part 1: 'Right now, there are way too many Grade 1 races' – Marshall Gramm (owner)View the latest TRC Global Rankings for horses / jockeys / trainers / sires