Several indicators suggest a decline in power for players like Adolis García, raising concerns about their future performance and fantasy value. Analysts have noted a drop in key statistics such as slugging percentage and isolated power (ISO). Despite maintaining high exit velocities, these players show signs of diminishing returns, particularly against high-speed pitches. The age curve analysis reveals that many established power hitters experience a downturn in their late 20s and early 30s. However, while the data points to an inevitable decline, it also suggests that hard-hitting players retain some level of relevance in fantasy leagues.

Evaluating the Decline in Performance Metrics

Data from Statcast highlights a significant decrease in several performance metrics for players entering their early 30s. For instance, Adolis García's ISO dropped from .263 in 2023 to .176 in 2024, and his slugging percentage showed a similar trend. Although he continues to hit the ball hard, with HardHit% remaining above league average, the quality of contact has diminished. This pattern is not unique to García; other players like Tommy Pham and Jorge Soler have experienced comparable declines. The question remains: Is this merely regression or a sign of aging?

Michael Bauman’s observations point to a loss of bat speed, which affects a player's ability to handle fast pitches effectively. This issue becomes more pronounced as players age, leading to a noticeable dip in power numbers. However, it's important to note that while these metrics indicate a decline, they don't necessarily spell doom for a player's career. Many of these players still manage to produce respectable results, even if not at their peak levels. Fantasy managers should weigh these factors carefully when drafting, considering both the statistical trends and the potential for a rebound.

Age Curve Analysis and Future Projections

Analyzing the age curve using the delta method provides insights into how power hitting evolves over time. The data shows that once players reach their mid-30s, there is a clear downward trend in HardHit%, slugging percentage, and weighted on-base average (wOBA). Players who have consistently hit the ball hard throughout their careers, such as Paul Goldschmidt and Nick Castellanos, are not immune to this phenomenon. Despite the decline, these players still maintain higher-than-average exit velocities, suggesting they can remain relevant in fantasy baseball.

While the age curve indicates a general decline, it also reveals that hard hitters tend to develop a second wind later in their careers. This resilience means that players like Adolis García, despite showing signs of aging, may still contribute valuable home runs and RBIs. Projection systems like Steamer account for these age-related declines, estimating that García could hit around 28 homers in the upcoming season. Fantasy managers should be cautious but not overly pessimistic about drafting these players. As ADP drops due to age concerns, savvy managers can find bargains, capitalizing on players who still offer solid contributions. Ultimately, passing on a player projected for 20 home runs is rarely a wise move in competitive leagues.