The anticipation for the Kentucky Derby, just 11 weeks away, is building as horse enthusiasts and analysts prepare for a thrilling season. Hosts Brian and Matt of HorseCenter delve into the complexities of this year's prospects, offering insights on potential runners and key qualifying races. This weekend, Churchill Downs will host the fourth pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, providing an opportunity to assess 40 promising horses. Additionally, the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds will feature top contenders like East Avenue and Good Cheer, setting the stage for what promises to be an exciting few months in horse racing.

With the Kentucky Derby fast approaching, the landscape of potential contenders remains wide open. Brian and Matt emphasize that despite the early uncertainty, several horses stand out as intriguing options. One such prospect is Getaway Car, trained by Bob Baffert, who showed promise last summer but has yet to secure a significant victory. Another long shot that catches their attention is Tiztastic, a son of Tiz the Law, who has shown improvement and could be primed for a breakthrough performance. Both horses are listed at 80-1 odds in the future wager, making them attractive bets for those willing to take a chance on underdogs.

The Risen Star Stakes, a critical qualifier for the Kentucky Derby, features a deep field of talented 3-year-olds. East Avenue, a son of Medaglia d'Oro, is the likely favorite after two impressive wins in Kentucky, despite a poor start in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. His challengers include Jonathan’s Way, Built, and Vassimo, each bringing their own strengths to the race. Jonathan’s Way has stakes experience but disappointed in the Breeders' Cup, while Built has shown consistency at Fair Grounds. Vassimo, though new to stakes competition, remains unbeaten in his career. American Promise, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, also presents an interesting long shot with 12-1 odds, having won his maiden race convincingly after several attempts.

In the female counterpart to the Risen Star, the Rachel Alexandra Stakes, the undefeated Good Cheer looks set to dominate. Trained by Brad Cox, she has won all four of her starts, including graded stakes races. Her main competition comes from Simply Joking, a filly with strong early speed and recent victories at Fair Grounds. Both Brian and Matt see Simply Joking as a viable contender against the heavily favored Good Cheer, especially if she can dictate the pace early on. The absence of significant early speed in the race could give Simply Joking an advantage, making her a compelling pick for bettors looking for value.

As the countdown to the Kentucky Derby continues, the coming weeks will be crucial in shaping the final field. The fourth pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager offers an early glimpse into which horses might emerge as serious contenders. With races like the Risen Star and Rachel Alexandra providing valuable qualifying points, the next few Saturdays will be filled with drama and excitement. Whether it's the potential breakout performances or the continued dominance of established favorites, the path to the roses is now well underway, promising a memorable spring for horse racing fans everywhere.