HorseRacing
Last Prep Race for 2-Year-Olds: The $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes
2024-12-19
Saturday's highly anticipated $100,000 listed Gun Runner Stakes serves as the final preparatory race for 2-year-olds vying for the Kentucky Derby 2025. This 1 1/16-mile contest is the first of four Derby qualifiers held at Fair Grounds, with only five contenders. Each runner has its own story and potential, making this a closely watched event.
Uncover the Potential in the Gun Runner Stakes
Built: A Distance-Promising Contender
In his second start, Built showed remarkable improvement by tearing down Render Judgment and other maidens by 1 1/2 lengths. Under Corey Lanerie's guidance, he took command at the 1/8 pole and held off the late charge. Completing seven furlongs in 1:23.96 with a 13.10 final furlong, his Brisnet speed rating improved to 89. As the first foal out of Curlin's daughter Sea Garden, Built is bred for distance. His family includes notable runners like Indian Vale. Built breezed twice at Fair Grounds, including a pre-race five-furlongs in 1:00.80. While he should enjoy two turns, there's always the possibility of regression after the victory. Exotics.Trained by Wayne Catalano, Built crossed the wire fourth in his debut but was upgraded to third after the runner-up was disqualified. One of his rivals, East Avenue, went on to win the Breeders' Futurity (G1). Catalano has a 15% winning rate and a 40% in-the-money clip with sprint-to-route runners in the last year. Over the last five years, he has sent only 16 juveniles in 21 overall stakes starts on dirt. Despite this, Built's 88 Equibase speed figure is on par with the other runners and is worth considering. Exotics.Render Judgment: The Green But Game Colt
In his second start against a full field of maidens at Churchill, Render Judgment completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.83. He regressed in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), finishing fifth. Typical of one-run closers, his late-pace figures are in the high 90s, but his overall speed ratings are in the mid-80s. Sired by Blame', he is the first foal out of Barbara Gordon. His damsire was a multiple graded-winning router. Render Judgment returns in 21 days and could improve after getting the "maiden bounce" out of the way. Exotics.Trained by Kenny McPeek, Render Judgment rallied from the back to finish second to Built at Keeneland and then won a high-level maiden event at Churchill Downs before finishing fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). McPeek has a 19% winning rate and a 48% in-the-money clip with juveniles in stakes races over the last five years. Laurie and Ashley both used this colt in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) superfecta and he just missed the top four. Exotics.Magnitude: The Experienced Front-Runner
Magnitude does his best work on the lead or pressing the pace. In the Iroquois (G3), he was a speed-fade casualty and finished seventh. In his latest start, he was rank initially but eventually prevailed by a length. Completing 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.24, he earned an 86 Brisnet rating. As a $450,000 Keeneland September yearling, he is the first winner in his immediate family. His second dam, Octave, is a Grade 1 winner. With four starts, Magnitude is the most experienced colt and gets a jock switch to Jose Ortiz. Contender.Trained by Steve Asmussen, Magnitude had a tough debut at Churchill Downs and then won at Ellis Park. In the Iroquois (G3), he weakened but bounced back in his next start. The key difference in his races is the jockey. Tyler Gaffalione was aboard for the losses and Erik Asmussen for the wins. Now Jose Ortiz will ride. Despite his ups and downs, Magnitude is a colt to watch. Contender.Chris's Revenge: The Sprinter-Miler
After winning $50,000 optional claimers at Belmont At The Big A, Chris's Revenge faced tougher competition at Churchill and finished fourth. By Instagrand, he is the first foal out of the Broken Vow mare Summer Squeeze. His half-sister is a Grade 3-winning turf router. Race Lens shows Instagrand has two winners from four starters at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Chris's Revenge has the build of a sprinter-miler but may handle two turns. Trained by Brittany Russell, he is 3:1-0-0 with a 13% win rate and a 43% in-the-money clip in Louisiana over the last five years. Jaime Torres will ride. Pass.Admiral Dennis: The Promising Contender
After a troubled third-place finish in his debut, Admiral Dennis returned to win by three lengths at Churchill. Luis Saez kept him wide and took over with authority. Completing a mile in 1:35.87 with a sharp 12:37-second final furlong, he earned a 91 Brisnet speed rating and 97 late pace figure. As a $425,000 Keeneland September yearling by Constitution, he is out of Gulf Cost. Admiral Dennis fired a second-to-last five-furlong bullet in 1:00.60 and is ready to compete. Trained by Brad Cox, he faced trouble in his debut but still finished third. With Luis Saez aboard again, he could be a force to be reckoned with. Contender.Final thoughts:By the numbers, this field is fairly even. Four of the five entrants have top Equibase speed figures in the mid to high 80s, with Admiral Dennis standing out with a 97. Magnitude is the lone front-runner and Ortiz can ensure the pace suits him. Admiral Dennis is likely the one to beat, but it's a jockey's race with only five in the field. Built is constructed for distance and can challenge early or late. Render Judgment could play spoiler if the pace is fast.Selections:Ashley: 3. Magnitude (2-1), 5. Admiral Dennis (9-5)Laurie: 5. Admiral Dennis (9-5), 3. Magnitude (2-1), 2. Render Judgment (4-1), 1. Built (7-2)