As the NFL’s Wild Card round nears its conclusion, a pressing issue has emerged among football enthusiasts: the prevalence of blowouts in both professional and college playoff games. The outcry from fans is palpable, with many questioning whether the expanded playoff formats are contributing to less competitive matchups. Yet, historical data and expert insights suggest that this phenomenon may not be as new or as problematic as it appears.

Embrace the Unpredictability: Football's Inherent Volatility

The Evolution of Playoff Formats

The expansion of playoff brackets in both the NFL and college football has undeniably altered the landscape of postseason play. With more teams vying for championships, the disparity between higher and lower-seeded teams has become increasingly evident. In the NFL, since expanding its postseason from 12 to 14 teams in 2021, only 38% of Wild Card games have finished within one score. This contrasts sharply with the pre-expansion era, where 60% of Wild Card games were closely contested. However, a closer look at the numbers reveals that while the percentage of close games has dipped, the absolute number of competitive matches remains relatively stable. Over the past five seasons, there have been 11 one-score Wild Card games post-expansion, compared to 12 in the five seasons prior.In college football, the shift to a 12-team playoff format has similarly sparked debate. Despite initial concerns, the first year of this new structure saw several upsets, including the surprising advancement of seventh and eighth-seeded teams to the national championship. Historically, college football has always been prone to lopsided scores, especially given the volatility of young players and the sheer volume of games played each season. As Chris Vannini of The Athletic aptly noted, “This isn’t new. [College football is a] volatile sport played by young people.”

Historical Context and Fan Expectations

The notion that blowouts are a recent development in football is a misconception. Data from the past decade reveals that even under the old four-team playoff system in college football, only about one-third of games finished within one possession. In other words, fans could typically expect just one truly exciting game per year. Now, with an expanded playoff slate, the likelihood of witnessing multiple competitive matches has increased significantly. Eleven playoff games provide far more opportunities for thrilling finishes than the previous four-game format. While the percentage of close games might have decreased, the absolute number of nail-biting contests remains intact.NFL fans, too, must consider the broader context. Although the percentage of one-score Wild Card games has dropped since the expansion, the total number of such games has remained steady. In 2023, for instance, four out of six Wild Card games were decided by a single score, demonstrating that variability is inherent in the sport. Some years will yield more close games than others, but this inconsistency is part of what makes football so captivating. Every blowout is not an indictment of the sport or its playoff structure; rather, it is a reflection of the high-variance nature of football.

Beyond the Numbers: The Essence of Football

Football, by its very nature, is a sport defined by unpredictability. Teams can dominate one week and struggle the next, and any given matchup can hinge on countless factors—from weather conditions to key injuries. This unpredictability is what keeps fans engaged and on the edge of their seats. Blowouts, while disappointing in the moment, are simply part of the broader tapestry of the sport. They do not diminish the value of the playoffs or the achievements of the teams involved.Moreover, the expanded playoff formats offer more teams a chance to compete for titles, which ultimately enriches the narrative of the season. Lower-seeded teams now have opportunities they never had before, leading to unexpected storylines and memorable moments. The seventh and eighth seeds reaching the college football championship is a testament to this newfound inclusivity. Fans should embrace these developments, recognizing that every game—whether close or not—contributes to the overall excitement of the postseason.

A Call for Patience and Perspective

Ultimately, the presence of blowouts in football’s playoffs is neither a new nor a uniquely problematic issue. Fans must temper their expectations and appreciate the sport’s inherent volatility. While everyone hopes for tightly contested games, the reality is that some years will deliver more close matches than others. Rather than focusing on the negative aspects, fans should remain patient and recognize that thrilling games will inevitably emerge. The beauty of football lies in its unpredictability, and embracing this uncertainty is key to fully enjoying the sport.