The Risen Star Stakes, set to take place this Saturday at Fair Grounds, has emerged as a pivotal event in the path to the 2025 Kentucky Derby. This Grade 2 race awards 50 qualifying points to its winner and has become one of the most influential winter preps leading up to Churchill Downs. With only 20 stalls available for the Derby, securing a spot through races like the Risen Star is crucial. In recent years, several Risen Star winners have not only qualified but also performed exceptionally well in the Derby. The significance of this race cannot be overstated, especially as it offers an early indicator of which horses might dominate the Triple Crown season.

Historically, the Risen Star has undergone significant changes that have enhanced its importance. Starting in 2020, all Fair Grounds preps were extended slightly, giving 3-year-olds more experience with longer distances. This adjustment has proven beneficial, as many Risen Star participants have gone on to excel in the Derby. For instance, Mandaloun, Epicenter, Angel of Empire, and Sierra Leone—all Risen Star victors—have placed within the top four in recent Derbies. This trend marks a stark contrast to the race's earlier history, where it produced only one Derby winner in its first 47 years.

In addition to the winners, the runners-up in the Risen Star have faced challenges. Track Phantom, Sun Thunder, Smile Happy, and Proxy, who finished second in their respective years, did not fare as well in the Derby, with some even missing the event entirely. This statistic underscores the importance of winning the Risen Star, as it seems to provide a psychological and competitive edge that translates into Derby success.

This year, the race looks set to be a showdown between East Avenue and Built, with Septarian potentially adding intrigue. East Avenue, having previously shown promise before a stumble in the Breeders' Cup, could capitalize on this opportunity. If he wins, East Avenue may quickly rise to become the favorite in both pari-mutuel and Las Vegas futures markets. The outcome of this race will likely have immediate implications for the Derby landscape, setting the stage for what promises to be an exciting spring season.

The impact of the Risen Star extends beyond just the points system. It serves as a litmus test for young talent, offering valuable insights into which horses are ready to handle the rigors of the Triple Crown. As the post-pandemic era reshapes the racing calendar, the Risen Star continues to play a critical role in identifying future champions. Its influence on the Kentucky Derby cannot be ignored, and this year’s edition is poised to further cement its reputation as a key predictor of success at Churchill Downs.