If you're a devotee of Beyer Speed Figures or Brisnet Speed ratings, then you're well aware of which horse holds the key to victory in Saturday's highly anticipated $250,000 Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. These two speed assessment systems, Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speed ratings, share a common objective - to compare the speed of racehorses across diverse distances, tracks, and days. Given that numerous factors can significantly impact the raw time of a horse race, both Beyer and Brisnet strive to calculate the influence of these factors and transform raw times into comparable numbers (such as 85, 88, 97, 104 etc.). The higher the number, the more promising the horse's speed.

Challenges and Complexities in Speed Rating

Evaluating horse speed is a challenging task, made even more intricate by the fact that racehorses often exhibit improvement or regression from one race to the next. However, when handicapping a horse race and multiple speed figure scales indicate that one horse is faster than the others, there's a strong likelihood that this horse is the most likely winner. This is precisely the situation in the Remsen Stakes, a 1 1/8-mile race that serves as a qualifying event for the Kentucky Derby, awarding 10-5-3-2-1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve points to the top five finishers. Both the Beyer and Brisnet scales suggest that #5 Keewaydin is the fastest entrant, making him the horse to beat.

Keewaydin's Racing History

Trained by four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown, Keewaydin made his debut on August 24 in a maiden special weight sprint over three-quarters of a mile at Saratoga. Initially settling a couple of lengths off the pace in third place, Keewaydin showed remarkable tenacity and closed the gap to finish just a neck behind the winner. Notably, two of the other entrants from this debut race have gone on to perform well on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The victorious Tip Top Thomas finished second in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, while fourth-place finisher Sovereignty (beaten by three lengths by Keewaydin) won the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes.Keewaydin's second start was equally impressive. Favorited at odds of 1-5 to win a maiden special weight race over seven-eighths of a mile at Aqueduct, Keewaydin took the lead early and opened up a three-length advantage in the early stretch. He then finished strongly, running his final eighth of a mile in :12.10 and winning by 1 3/4 lengths. The runner-up was a distant 10 lengths clear of the rest. Keewaydin crossed the finish line in a snappy time of 1:22.09, earning a 92 Brisnet Speed rating (one point lower than his debut rating of 93) and a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. None of the other Remsen entrants have achieved a rating in the 90s on either scale.

Potential Vulnerabilities and Advantages

One potential weakness of Keewaydin is that the Remsen is a quarter-mile longer than his last race, and his pedigree (by Instagrand out of a mare by Officer) is more inclined towards speed than stamina. On the positive side, the Remsen doesn't have an overly fast pace, providing Keewaydin with the opportunity to set or maintain a moderate pace and carry his speed over the full 1 1/8-mile distance. Additionally, Keewaydin will be ridden by hot jockey Dylan Davis. According to Brisnet statistics, over the past 60 days, Davis has achieved a phenomenal 42% win rate when partnering with Brown.

The Other Contenders

Studlydoright is the most accomplished horse in the Remsen field. He has won at the stakes level twice, taking the Tremont Stakes by 1 3/4 lengths and the Nashua Stakes by half a length. His most recent victory came in a one-mile race at Aqueduct last month, and stretching out to 1 1/8 miles shouldn't be a problem for him as he is a son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of a mare by two-time Horse of the Year Curlin.Tux, although not as experienced as Studlydoright, made a strong first impression by dominating a maiden special weight sprint at Aqueduct last month, winning by 3 1/2 lengths. The son of Tapit has a good chance of performing well or even better when stretching out in distance under the guidance of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. According to Brisnet statistics, Mott wins at a 20% rate in graded stakes.

Wagering Strategies

For those with a $10 budget, a simple wager on #5 Keewaydin to win is a viable option. At the betting window, you can say, "Aqueduct, Race 7, $10 to win on 5." If you're willing to invest a bit more and aim for a bigger payoff, consider adding a trifecta bet. By selecting #5 Keewaydin as the top finisher and using #1 Tux and #4 Studlydoright for second and third place, you have a good chance of cashing a winning ticket. The trifecta bet would cost $6 (with 5 with 1,4 with 1,4), and at the betting window, you can say, "Aqueduct, Race 7, $6 trifecta 5 with 1,4 with 1,4."Good luck, and may the best horse win! Enjoy the race!