Post position plays a crucial role in determining the outcome of horse races, especially in longer dirt races. In this context, the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds presents an intriguing scenario for Saturday's competition. The inside post positions, particularly the rail, pose challenges for horses like Innovator. Despite demonstrating significant potential with impressive performances in previous races, including a strong showing against the eventual winner of the San Vicente Stakes (G2), Innovator faces a strategic disadvantage due to its starting position. However, considering the morning line odds of 10-1, bettors might find value in backing Innovator, as it offers a fair price of around 5-1.

Built emerges as the frontrunner based on his recent performance in the Gun Runner Stakes, where he secured a gate-to-wire victory at this specific track and distance. This win earned him a top rating, signaling a significant improvement in form. The key question now revolves around whether trainer Wayne Catalano can replicate this success over two turns. If Built continues to perform at this elevated level, he could be favored at odds between 3-2 and 5-2. Conversely, if this was an anomaly, his true odds may be closer to 5-1. Given these uncertainties, Built is likely to be undervalued by the betting market.

The race dynamics create interesting opportunities for bettors seeking value. Innovator appears to be overvalued by the market, while Built might be undervalued. Optical, priced at 20-1 on the morning line but assessed at a more favorable 10-1, also presents a compelling option. His recent improvement suggests he could be a dark horse contender. For those looking to maximize returns, an exacta box strategy involving Innovator, Magnitude, Optical, and Disco Time becomes attractive, especially if Built's odds drop below 3-1. Adding Tough Catch and Dapper Moon to the mix could further enhance betting strategies, making the Lecomte Stakes a thrilling event full of strategic possibilities.