Georgetown 75, Syracuse 73. I have to sound the #DisloyalIdiot alarm here because I just have a feeling that the Hoyas will get enough open shots to overcome the Orange's defense and sneak out of town with a win. Can Syracuse handle the ball well against a team that averages over 10 steals per game? Will they be able to use their inside advantage to counter the Hoyas' perimeter advantage? And can either team make 30% from three? There are a lot of questions that I don't have answers for right now, so I'm hoping my gut is wrong.
Looking at the Hoyas, four of their players are averaging double-figures in points, with Thomas Sorber leading the way at 15.4 PPG and the other three being guards. But Syracuse also has its strengths. If their defense can be solid, they have a chance to make enough two-point plays inside to come away with the win. It's a tough call, but I'm leaning towards Georgetown for now.
Syracuse 73, Georgetown 68. In good conscience, I have to go with Syracuse despite G-Town's paper advantage in scoring. Four Hoyas are averaging double-figures, but they haven't beaten a Power program this season, so those numbers might not be as reliable as they seem. If Syracuse's defense can hold strong, they should be able to make enough two-point shots inside to secure the win. There's about a 25% chance I'll regret this pick, which is about the same percentage I expect from both teams shooting from three on Saturday.
Syracuse needs to rely on their inside game and defense to slow down the Hoyas' scoring. If they can do that, they have a good chance of coming out on top. But it won't be easy, as the Hoyas have a talented backcourt and a lot of scoring options.
Georgetown 77, Syracuse 72. Maybe I've just been too optimistic about Syracuse lately because I don't understand why they are such a heavy favorite. Without their top guard and their center not playing at 100%, Syracuse will need a really good performance from their secondary scoring options - Freeman, Moore, and Davis all need to contribute double digits. As it stands, I like Georgetown's mid-range game more right now and I think they will find a way to win in the last minute.
Georgetown has a lot of weapons on offense and they are playing well right now. Syracuse will need to play their best game to have a chance of winning. But based on the current form of both teams, I think Georgetown has the edge.
Syracuse 74, Georgetown 71. These two teams have combined to go 0 - 6 against Power Five opponents, which isn't surprising given their struggles from distance. Syracuse shoots 27.3% from three (338th in the nation) and Georgetown shoots 29.2% (310th). So this game will likely come down to the paint and the free-throw line. I give Syracuse a slight advantage based on their home-court advantage and their ability to draw fouls.
Freeman had a career-high 24-point game last time out and he'll need to build on that with 16 more points on Saturday to help Syracuse ice the game. If they can make their free throws and play solid defense in the paint, they should be able to come out on top.
Georgetown 81, Syracuse 77. Syracuse should have the advantage in the frontcourt, while Georgetown should have the advantage in the backcourt. But Thomas Sorber helps mitigate the downside for Georgetown's frontcourt in a way that Syracuse's backcourt can't without JJ Starling. In other words, Georgetown's guards in Epps, Mack, and Peavy should be able to penetrate the gaps and score easily.
Even if Georgetown wins the rebounding battle, Syracuse's lapses on defense might be too much to overcome against an improved Hoya squad. It's going to be a tough battle, but I think Georgetown has the edge in this one.