The Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, taking place this weekend, stands as the lone 50-point Kentucky Derby prep race. Despite not being among the highest-tier events, it has historically produced several notable horses. This year, the spotlight falls on Chad Brown’s promising three-year-old colt, Chancer McPatrick, who is set to make his debut in this season's stakes races. Other contenders include Patch Adams, Hill Road, and Owen Almighty, each bringing unique strengths and challenges to the competition.

The event promises to be pivotal for these young thoroughbreds as they vie for crucial points that could secure their spots in the Kentucky Derby. The race will also provide valuable insights into the form and potential of these horses, particularly those making their first starts as three-year-olds. With a field of talented runners, the outcome remains unpredictable, adding excitement to this significant preparatory contest.

Chancer McPatrick: Rising Star or Work in Progress?

Headlining this year’s Tampa Bay Derby is Chancer McPatrick, trained by Chad Brown. Despite a series of troubled starts in his juvenile season, McPatrick demonstrated remarkable resilience, overcoming early setbacks to secure impressive victories. However, his late-running style posed challenges in more competitive settings, leading to a brief hiatus for minor ankle surgery. Now back in action, McPatrick faces stiffer competition from more experienced and developed runners.

McPatrick’s journey to this point has been marked by both triumphs and trials. His debut at Saratoga saw him triumph despite a slow start, foreshadowing a pattern of late surges. In subsequent races, he continued to show promise but faced recurring issues at the start line. Brown aims to mitigate these problems with the addition of blinkers, hoping to improve McPatrick’s focus and reaction time. Although not fully ready, Brown believes McPatrick is prepared enough to compete effectively. Starting from post position two with Flavien Prat aboard, this race serves as a critical test of McPatrick’s readiness and potential for the upcoming Triple Crown series.

Contenders Emerge: A Closer Look at the Competition

Beyond McPatrick, the Tampa Bay Derby features several other formidable entrants. Among them, Patch Adams stands out as a top contender. Trained by Brad Cox, Patch Adams disappointed in his last outing but showed immense promise in his maiden victory at Churchill Downs. His performance in the Grade 3 Southwest was hampered by a troubled start, but a slight improvement could propel him to the front. Distance limitations remain a concern, but with a favorable pace, Patch Adams could emerge as a strong competitor.

Hill Road, another horse under Chad Brown’s guidance, makes his first start for the renowned trainer. Purchased for $350,000 as a yearling, Hill Road’s potential is still largely unknown. Like McPatrick, he struggled with a poor start in the Juvenile but managed a commendable third-place finish. Adding blinkers for this race, Hill Road could surprise with an improved performance. Lastly, Owen Almighty, trained by Brian Lynch, brings experience and consistency. Already holding 15 Derby points, he may only need a solid effort to secure his spot in the Kentucky Derby. With a forward-running style and familiarity with the track, Owen Almighty could challenge for a top finish.