The landscape of the 3-year-old male division has shifted significantly following three major prep races on February 1. This article highlights three horses gaining momentum and three whose prospects for the 2025 Kentucky Derby have dimmed. The focus is on the evolving dynamics within this competitive field, showcasing promising performances and disappointing results.
Rising Stars on the Triple Crown Trail
In a thrilling turn of events, Burnham Square has emerged as a formidable contender after trainer Ian Wilkes introduced blinkers two races ago. This equipment change has transformed Burnham Square's performance, culminating in an impressive last-to-first victory by 1¾ lengths in the $265,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Despite a slow start and challenging conditions, Burnham Square demonstrated remarkable resilience, finishing with a final furlong time of :12.53. His recent performances have earned him career-best speed figures, elevating his status from an under-the-radar prospect to a serious contender.
Another horse making waves is Captain Cook. Under the guidance of experienced trainer Rick Dutrow, Captain Cook has shown exceptional promise, winning by 9¼ lengths in a seven-furlong race at Aqueduct and then excelling in the $250,000 Withers Stakes over 1⅛ miles. His ability to adapt to longer distances and maintain impressive closing fractions (:24.98 for the final quarter-mile) suggests he could be a strong candidate for the Kentucky Derby. Dutrow's expertise adds further credibility to Captain Cook's potential.
Lastly, Citizen Bull, the reigning champion 2-year-old male, returned triumphantly with a commanding 3¾-length win in the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park. Trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, Citizen Bull led from start to finish, setting new benchmarks in speed figures. Baffert's confidence in Citizen Bull's untapped potential leaves little doubt that he remains a dominant force in the 3-year-old division.
Falling Fortunes on the Derby Trail
Not all horses are experiencing such success. Guns Loaded, who initially showed promise with a maiden win at Churchill Downs, faced a significant setback in the Holy Bull Stakes. After setting the pace, he faded badly, finishing last and 33¼ lengths behind the winner. A dramatic turnaround will be essential for Guns Loaded to regain his footing on the Derby trail.
Ferocious, a fan favorite, also struggled in his season debut. Although he was competitive early in the Holy Bull Stakes, he faltered in the final stretch, finishing fourth and 11¾ lengths behind the winner. While conditioning may have played a role, his performance left much to be desired, especially given his previous Grade 1 accolades.
Mo Quality, the second betting choice in the Withers Stakes, similarly faced disappointment. Pressing the pace from second, he ultimately faded to fourth place, recording his first unplaced finish and the lowest speed figure of his career. While not out of contention, Mo Quality faces an uphill battle to recover lost ground on the Derby trail.
Insights and Reflections
From a journalist's perspective, the shifting fortunes of these young thoroughbreds underscore the unpredictable nature of horse racing. Equipment changes, training adjustments, and competitive dynamics can dramatically alter a horse's trajectory. For aspiring Derby contenders like Burnham Square, Captain Cook, and Citizen Bull, their recent performances offer hope and excitement for fans and bettors alike. Conversely, the challenges faced by Guns Loaded, Ferocious, and Mo Quality serve as a reminder that even the most promising careers can encounter setbacks. As the Triple Crown trail progresses, it will be fascinating to see how these horses continue to evolve and compete for glory in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.