Baseball
Uncovering the RBI Powerhouses: Giants' Offseason Prospects
2024-11-21
My response to the conclusion of the Farhan Zaidi era was inclined towards being more critical of the subsequent individual. However, that subsequent person turned out to be Buster Posey. Fans are eagerly awaiting Buster Posey to take actions such as lowering egg prices and fixing the San Francisco Giants through whatever means he devises. Thus, being skeptical or critical of a franchise icon, even one with no prior experience in their new role, makes me seem rather unseemly.
Buster Posey's Perspective on RBI and the Giants' Offseason
Josh Naylor: A Perfect Fit for the Giants' Needs
Josh Naylor is a player who truly catches our attention. He is set to turn 28 in June, which positions him favorably in terms of the age curve and prime. The batted ball data for him is quite promising, and Statcast highly rates his defense at first base, with a +5 OAA. While the Giants do need to consider if they require another first baseman/DH, Naylor offers tremendous value at the plate. He has a decent walk rate, which was even better in 2024, and his strikeout rate is well below average, at 16.6% throughout his career. In 2024 alone, he hit a career-high 31 home runs. However, it's important to note that his home/road split in 2024 was rather alarming, with a.852 OPS at home and a.699 OPS on the road. Nevertheless, his career split of.742 OPS at home and.790 OPS on the road is more balanced.The Qualifying Offer RBI Guys: A Costly Dilemma
Although it is possible that the Giants might acquire one of the players from this group (such as Pete Alonso, Willy Adames, Teoscar Hernandez, Christian Walker, Juan Soto, or Anthony Santander), it is highly improbable given the draft cost associated with qualifying offer players. Alonso experienced a significant power drop in 2024 and is about to enter his 30s for his next contract. Adames, while a CAA client, may command a higher salary than Ha-Seong Kim and has less long-term stability at shortstop. Teoscar just won the World Series and may not be inclined to join the Giants. Santander would be expensive and more of a DH than a fielder, and the acquisition cost might not be justified due to Oracle Park's impact on his power. Walker is a very fine player but comes with a high price tag as a first baseman. Soto might not even be aware of the Giants' existence.Justin Turner: A Surprising Veteran Presence
Including Justin Turner on this list mainly serves to amuse myself. It's astonishing how this player is still performing at a high level. Captain Crowd-The-Plate has only 135 hit by pitches despite his age. He managed to salvage his 2024 season after a trade from Toronto to Seattle, with an OPS of.766. However, it is highly unlikely that the Giants would make an effort to acquire a 40-year-old former Dodger who seems to have been created in a lab to scare children.Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: A Possible Trade Target
It seems unreasonable for the Blue Jays to trade one of their franchise faces. Imagining the Giants having the right combination of players to land him is even more far-fetched, especially considering he is set to become a free agent after 2025. However, we have included him as a possible target because perhaps Russ Atkins sees this as an opportunity to accumulate prospects and set up the Jays' next competitive era. A relevant comparison could be the Juan Soto trade last offseason, but the circumstances are different as the Padres were under pressure to reduce payroll. The Blue Jays, being owned by a telecommunications company, can retain their homegrown stars. But still, he presents a potential option for the Giants.Ian Happ & Cody Bellinger: Cubs' Potential Trade Pieces
Both Ian Happ and Cody Bellinger seem to be important components of the Cubs. We have included them here not only because they are in the top 50 but also because the Cubs might be looking to trim their payroll. Ken Rosenthal has speculated that Bellinger (along with Nico Hoerner) could be on the trade block. Hoerner's RBI performance is not as impressive as Happ's, so we have paired them together. Happ is owed $21 million in 2025 and $19 million in 2026, while Bellinger has a series of complex player options and team buyouts totaling approximately $52.5 million over the next two seasons. Happ also won his third consecutive Gold Glove, indicating that his acquisition cost would be high even if the Cubs were looking to shed salary.Nick Castellanos: The RBI Machine
The question remains: why would the Giants take on a middle-aged designated hitter still owed $40 million who doesn't get on base much and strikes out a lot? The answer is simple - he drives in runs. Not only in scoring position but everywhere. Since 2022, his 254 RBI place him 31st in MLB. From an analytics perspective, he is slightly better than a league average hitter when combined. His defense should not be factored in as it would only make him look worse. He also performs significantly worse away from Citizens Bank Park and has a career average of.225/.225/.350 at Oracle Park in 10 games and 40 plate appearances. However, looking at his average leverage index and Win Probability added, it might suggest that he is more trouble than he's worth. But the Giants have tried different approaches in the past six seasons without success, and many fans are eager to try something different, regardless of how it may seem. Additionally, the Phillies might be looking to shake up their roster, and selling off one of their former clubhouse pillars could be just what they need, and the Giants might be willing buyers.J.D. Martinez: The Giants' Missed Opportunity
The Giants attempted to sign J.D. Martinez last offseason, but he didn't seem to be fond of the ballpark.Paul Goldschmidt: The Front Office's Ideal
As mentioned yesterday, Paul Goldschmidt is the exact kind of player that the current Giants front office is seeking. They are willing to overlook his age and recent performance. After all, what a player did three years ago often forms the basis for organizational revamps. This is a common front office concept practiced by both Brian Sabean and Farhan Zaidi. It's interesting to note that last season was the first time Goldschmidt provided negative Win Probability Added (-0.7). Posey himself had two such seasons, but he recovered in 2021. The Giants likely see a similar potential in Goldschmidt, who won't be a costly acquisition and might relish the opportunity to dominate the NL West regularly. Throughout his career, he has a.303 average, 99 home runs, and 364 RBI in 1,857 combined at bats against the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, and Padres.In conclusion, good players often appear on various lists that aim to distinguish the good from the rest. We need to let go of our irritation when certain players are grouped based on specific metrics. RBI isn't the ultimate tool for evaluation, but for former players who know how to win, its significance is undeniable, as these results clearly demonstrate.