This story originally appeared on WIRED Italia and has been translated from Italian. It delves into the high-stakes negotiations at the upcoming UN Conference of the Parties on Climate Change, COP29, where world leaders will grapple with the ambitious goal of securing $1 trillion in annual climate finance to support developing nations in their fight against the climate crisis.

Powering the Green Transition: The Trillion-Dollar Climate Finance Imperative

The Pursuit of a Collective Climate Finance Target

The COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, will be a crucial battleground for determining the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on Climate Finance. This new, higher annual target aims to supersede the $100 billion commitment made in 2009, which was only achieved for the first time in 2022. Countries will debate the specifics of the NCQG, including the exact figure, the types of finance to be included, and the allocation of funds between mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage. The negotiations will also address the role of the private sector and the timeline for reaching the target, with 2030 and 2035 representing vastly different timelines.

The North-South Divide: Responsibility and Commitments

A central dilemma at COP29 will be the question of who bears responsibility for the climate crisis and what commitments are expected from different nations. The global south is pressing for a flow of climate finance from developed countries to those left behind, who have not contributed significantly to historical emissions. Conversely, the industrialized world demands decarbonization commitments from developing nations, partly to safeguard their own industrial and technological competitiveness.

The China Factor: Navigating a Complex Geopolitical Landscape

China's position adds an additional layer of complexity to the negotiations. As the world's largest emitter, accounting for one-third of global emissions, China is still considered a developing nation by the UN, meaning it is not formally bound to the same economic commitments as historical polluters. However, Beijing may choose to make bold climate commitments to bolster its international standing, further complicating the already intricate geopolitical dynamics.

Attendance and Absences: The Shifting Landscape of Global Leadership

The COP29 summit will see the participation of delegations from nearly 200 countries, but several key leaders will be notably absent. The outgoing US President, Joe Biden, will not attend, and the decision by the newly elected Donald Trump to potentially withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement and the UN climate convention casts a long shadow over the proceedings. The absence of other influential figures, such as the European Commission President, the German Chancellor, and the French President, further underscores the shifting landscape of global climate leadership.

The Ripple Effects of US Politics: Implications for Climate Cooperation

The potential return of the US to a more skeptical stance on climate action under a Trump presidency could have far-reaching consequences. With only the EU and China remaining as the major global climate players, the dynamics of international cooperation and the search for alternative solutions become even more critical. While the private sector may continue to support the transition, the loss of US leadership could dampen the overall momentum and inspiration for climate action.

The EU-China Axis: A Glimmer of Hope in Uncertain Times

Despite the challenges posed by the shifting political landscape, some experts see a glimmer of hope in the potential for the EU and China to step up and fill the void left by the US. The relationship between these two economic powerhouses will be crucial in determining the success of the climate finance goal and the broader climate agenda. As the world prepares for the next round of decarbonization commitments at COP30, the actions and ambitions of the EU and China will be closely watched.