To gain a deeper understanding of baseball performance, it's essential to move beyond traditional metrics. This article explores how a new method called "Deserved Exit Velocity" (dEV) offers a more comprehensive view of player performance, providing valuable insights for both fantasy players and team managers.

Discover How dEV Revolutionizes Player Evaluation in Baseball

The Limitations of Traditional Metrics

Traditional methods of measuring exit velocity, such as raw mean or 90th percentile, have long been used to gauge a batter’s power. However, these metrics fall short when it comes to capturing the full picture. The distribution of exit velocities is heavily skewed to the left, meaning that focusing solely on the mean can overlook crucial information. Similarly, the 90th percentile only tells us about the upper end of performance, leaving out the rest of the distribution. This approach fails to summarize and project a hitter’s entire velocity profile, which is vital for accurate forecasting over a season.

Introducing Deserved Exit Velocity (dEV)

To address these limitations, a novel metric known as Deserved Exit Velocity (dEV) has emerged. By leveraging the skew normal distribution, dEV can encapsulate all percentiles of exit velocity, not just one. This allows for a more nuanced understanding of a player's performance. For instance, dEV can reveal how effectively a player maintains consistent contact quality across different scenarios. It also provides a clearer picture of how launch angle and other batted-ball characteristics interact with exit velocity to produce results.

Real-World Applications of dEV

Let’s delve into some practical examples from the 2024 season. Comparing the league-wide average distribution with individual players like Pete Alonso and Luis Arraez reveals significant differences. Existing metrics assume that player distributions differ only by their position along the exit velocity spectrum. However, this assumption ignores important variations. Some players may excel at generating high-end velocities while struggling with consistency, while others maintain a robust average despite lower peak speeds. These distinctions matter and should not be overlooked.

Impact on Player Evaluation

The implications of dEV extend to player evaluation. Consider batters whose dEV differs markedly from their 90th-percentile exit velocity (EV90). Players like Pete Alonso and Christian Walker show discrepancies between their dEV and EV90, suggesting that they might be undervalued or overvalued based on traditional metrics. On the flip side, players like Brandon Nimmo and Luis Arraez are seen as underrated by dEV, highlighting the importance of considering the entire velocity distribution rather than just the top end.

dEV and Pitchers: A Different Story

For pitchers, dEV proves particularly insightful. Unlike batters, pitchers influence exit velocity primarily through the mean and standard deviation, rather than skew. As a result, dEV offers notably better reliability year-to-year compared to EV90. Notable examples include Ryan Yarbrough and Raisel Iglesias, whose dEV values provide a more balanced view of their performance. Conversely, pitchers like Kyle Hendricks and Max Fried emerge as underappreciated talents, demonstrating superior exit-velocity control.

Advancing Player Analysis

Moving forward, incorporating dEV into player analysis can lead to more informed decisions. Fantasy players and team managers can use this metric to identify hidden gems or reassess established stars. By shedding light on how players achieve their results, dEV opens up new avenues for evaluating talent. Feedback from readers will be instrumental in refining these metrics further, ensuring they remain relevant and useful in an increasingly data-driven sport.