Unraveling the Mysteries of 2024's Wide Receiver Struggles

Big-Picture Offensive Trends

At the beginning of the season, there was much talk about the decline of offensive football. But in recent weeks, we've seen some massive offensive games, making that initial concern seem a bit silly. NFL teams are averaging 22.8 points per game this season, up from 2023 and 2022. Receiving touchdowns per game (1.42) are also slightly up, while rushing touchdowns per game (0.97) are at the highest mark since 2020. Defensive coordinators have implemented more complex coverage packages, but "two-high" specifically as the cause of wide receiver production issues is an oversimplification. Per TruMedia, Cover 3 (34.1%) and Cover 1 (20.6%) are still the most predominant coverages league-wide, where traditional alpha receivers do most of their damage. Offenses this year see Cover 2 on 12.4% of plays, up slightly from previous years. Defenses have used two-high safeties on 46.9% of opposing dropbacks, similar to the previous two seasons.

Anecdotally, offenses have struggled more with creative blitz packages and simulated pressures from advanced defensive play-callers. Some teams have struggled more than others, but overall, it doesn't appear that a defensive revolution is the root cause of the lack of wideout production at the top of the league. Offensively, some of the best teams have leaned into the run game, but league-wide teams aren't running the ball more than in recent years. Efficiency isn't much different either.

Key Takeaways from the Rushing Game

One of the key takeaways from this offseason was that some rushing ecosystems would be weaponized. Teams like the 49ers (with Christian McCaffrey), Detroit (with Jahmyr Gibbs), the Falcons (with Bijan Robinson), the Ravens (with Derrick Henry), the Eagles (with Saquon Barkley), and the Packers (with Josh Jacobs) have all leaned into diverse run games. This has had a significant impact on individual running back production at the top of the league.

Health and Bad Luck

Health has been a more complicated factor for wide receivers this year. The four most efficient wide receivers in the NFL on a yards-per-route run basis are Puka Nacua (3.5), Nico Collins (3.58), Rashee Rice (3.27), and A.J. Brown (3.2). All four have missed multiple weeks. A.J. Brown leads the NFL with 4.47 yards per route run against man coverage this season. If these players had played more games, they'd likely be in the top five in receiving yards. Another example is Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin. He was a top-three fantasy receiver before going down in Week 7 and is averaging over 80 yards per game this season. Brandon Aiyuk was also having a great season in 2023 but was lost for the year in Week 7. CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill have played significant portions of the season without their starting quarterbacks, affecting their production.

A few missed games can completely change a wide receiver's season. Jerry Jeudy is a prime example. He ranked 44th in Weeks 1 to 8 but is now fourth in receiving yards. There's also an influx of talent at the position, which may have caused teams to spread the wealth more in the passing game. This could impact rookie receiver production and increase the volatility of Tier 2 and 3 receivers.

In conclusion, while 2024 looks like a down year for wide receivers at the top of the league, it may not be instructive for future seasons. There are many factors at play, and bad injury luck has played a significant role.