The Arizona Wildcats enter their inaugural Big 12 season with an unusual challenge. Traditionally a powerhouse, the team finds itself on the outside of the NCAA Tournament bubble, lacking significant victories and facing a grueling schedule. Yet, this could be the turning point that redefines the program’s trajectory.

Why This Season Could Decide Arizona's Future in College Basketball

The Power of Conference Play

The transition to the Big 12 has set the stage for Arizona basketball to face one of its toughest challenges yet. The Wildcats have historically been a dominant force in March Madness, but this year, they find themselves needing to prove their worth. Playing in a conference known for its competitive intensity provides a unique opportunity for Arizona to earn high-value wins against formidable opponents. The Big 12 is renowned for its robust reputation, with seven programs ranked among KenPom’s top 25. This environment offers Arizona around a dozen chances to secure Quad 1 victories, which are highly valued by the NCAA Selection Committee. Despite their current struggles, the Wildcats remain just outside the top 25 in the NCAA NET rankings. A few key wins could significantly bolster their tournament prospects. Since 2015, every Big 12 team with a .500 conference record or better has made it to the NCAA Tournament, giving Arizona hope as they aim for an 11-9 finish in league play.

Building Team Cohesion

This season has been a learning curve for Arizona, especially with four new starters replacing last year’s core. Players like Trey Townsend, Tobe Awaka, Anthony Dell’Orso, and freshman Carter Bryant have had to adapt quickly to a demanding schedule. Returners Caleb Love and KJ Lewis have sometimes struggled to find their rhythm, while Henri Veesaar has taken on a larger role due to Motiejus Krivas's injury.As the season progresses, these players are expected to gel more effectively. Signs of improvement are already visible, particularly in recent defensive performances. After early struggles, Arizona has shown remarkable defensive efficiency, ranking 17th nationally. In two recent games, they held opponents to dismal shooting percentages, demonstrating the potential for a cohesive and resilient defense. This development could be crucial as the team looks to solidify its identity and improve its overall performance.

Turning the Tide

Luck has not been on Arizona’s side so far. Key moments, such as missed game-tying shots and overtime losses, highlight the team’s need for a bit of fortune. According to KenPom’s Luck rating, Arizona ranks near the bottom nationally, suggesting that outcomes in tight games could improve. Probability suggests that the Wildcats will eventually catch breaks, leading to crucial victories.Moreover, the team’s resilience should not be underestimated. Despite setbacks, Arizona has shown flashes of brilliance, especially in recent performances. As confidence grows, players like Love are finding their form, which can lead to more decisive plays and improved morale. The combination of better luck and growing cohesion could be the catalyst for a strong second half of the season.

Offensive Struggles Persist

Arizona’s offense has faced significant challenges, particularly in distributing the ball and perimeter shooting. The team’s personnel changes were intended to address weaknesses from last season, but so far, results have been mixed. Arizona’s assist rate has dropped to 56 percent, well below Lloyd’s previous standards. Additionally, the Wildcats are struggling with 3-point shooting, hitting only 30.7 percent—far below league leaders Houston and Texas Tech.These issues are magnified in critical moments, where offensive breakdowns can cost the team dearly. In five losses, opponents have outscored Arizona by an average of 15 points from beyond the arc. Addressing these shortcomings will be vital if the Wildcats hope to compete in the Big 12, where every possession counts.

A Grueling Road Ahead

The Big 12 schedule presents a formidable obstacle for Arizona. The conference’s rigorous travel demands and competitive venues add layers of difficulty. Unlike the Pac-12, where home-and-away series provided some consistency, the Big 12 features a more unpredictable schedule. Over the next few months, Arizona faces a challenging sequence of games, including away matches at BYU, Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas, along with home matchups against Texas Tech and Houston.Navigating this schedule without much margin for error will test the Wildcats’ resolve. The team must find ways to thrive in hostile environments and maintain focus through the grind of conference play. Success will require not only skill but also mental fortitude and strategic adjustments.

Interior Depth Concerns

The absence of Motiejus Krivas has left a noticeable void in Arizona’s frontcourt. While Henri Veesaar has stepped up admirably, the lack of interior depth remains a concern. Freshman Emmanuel Stephen shows promise but may not be ready for consistent playing time. This situation puts additional pressure on Arizona’s guards, who have already demonstrated limitations in perimeter shooting.Maintaining competitiveness in the Big 12 will require creative solutions to compensate for this depth issue. The coaching staff must explore strategies to maximize the contributions of available players and ensure that the team remains balanced and effective on both ends of the floor.