Bailey Ober, a 12th round pick from the College of Charleston, initially seemed an unlikely front line starter at 6 feet, 10 inches and barely 250 pounds. He peaked as the Twins' 25th ranked prospect per MLB Pipeline and was often overlooked in the rotation. However, his story is one of remarkable growth and transformation.

Discovering the Hidden Potential of Bailey Ober

Adjustments on the Path to Breaking Out

Ober's changeup was always intended to be his signature pitch. Fangraphs graded it a 60 and MLB Pipeline a 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale when he reached the majors. His fastball sat in the low-90s, and reports on his breaking balls were mixed. Scouts agreed it was a plus pitch, but initially, it didn't perform well. In his first two big league stints, the pitch had a negative run value and performed poorly overall compared to other changeups across baseball.Dan Hayes of the Athletic noted that the Twins asked Ober to change his arm slot in the upper minors, which affected his feel for the pitch. Just before the 2023 season, Ober worked with Luke Hagerty from X2 Baseball to rediscover his changeup. Hagerty noticed that Ober's middle finger wasn't always in the same spot when releasing the ball, leading to inconsistent drop. Randy Dobnak also helped with the changeup grip when Ober was demoted to triple-A St. Paul in 2023.All these tweaks made a significant difference. The changeup became much more consistent, with an average of three additional inches of drop. Twin's pitching coach Peter Maki described it as "a lot more crisp and sharp" in September. Ober focused on throwing the changeup low and below the zone with more regularity, and its performance improved year over year. In 2021-22, it had a BA of.280, SLG of.430, and xwOBA of.367. In 2023, it was.226,.360, and.263. In 2024, it reached.154,.285, and.202.

Introducing a New Sweeper

While fine-tuning his changeup, Ober introduced a new sweeper into his arsenal. It added significant horizontal movement to his slider. He tinkered with it before the 2024 season, adding more sweep and drop while reducing velocity slightly. However, the new pitch didn't perform particularly well in terms of whiff rate and Stuff+. Left-handed batters slugged nearly.500 off it.Necessitating a new weapon, Ober added a cutter before the 2024 season. He wanted something a little harder than the sweeper to use against righties and throw inside to lefties. The cutter helped him access a new quadrant of the plate, stopping hitters from diving out over the plate and allowing him to work the ball down in the zone. In 2022, against lefties, his BA was.258, SLG.382, and xwOBA.334. In 2023, it was.228,.349, and.284. In 2024, it dropped to.190,.359, and.266.

Command and Its Impact

Command is crucial for a pitcher like Ober who doesn't have overpowering stuff. His ability to work inside, outside, high, and low while picking off corners and edges allowed him to lean on his plus command. These new slider variations were key to accessing his strength in the game.Taking a step back, Ober didn't have to make huge changes to become a frontline starter. From 2022 to 2023, with all these adjustments, he had a 3.37 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 19.5 K-BB% over 200 1/3 innings. He was one of only 14 pitchers to hit these benchmarks during that span.ResultsOber was solid through 2022 and 2023 but reached a new level last season. His 3.98 ERA was affected by a few clunkers, but he had a streak of 11 straight quality starts. His 1.00 WHIP was fifth-lowest, his 20.9 K-BB% ninth-highest, and his 3.56 SIERA 14th-lowest among all qualified starters. He closed the season as the 22nd ranked starting pitcher in fantasy, between Bryan Woo and Sonny Gray.What's Next?Going forward, there are questions. Ober has shown an elite ability to keep runners off the bases and maintain a high strikeout rate over nearly 400 IP. But how much more ceiling is there? He's being drafted as the 24th starting pitcher between Nola and Hunter Greene. There could be some positive ERA regression, but he may not give the same volume as last year. The breaking balls remain a concern. I love Ober as a pitcher but think he might be more valuable in real life than in fantasy baseball at his current draft price.