The 2023 Royals starting pitching staff faced significant challenges, with a 5.12 ERA, ranking fourth-worst in baseball. It was a constantly changing lineup of starters, as 29 different pitchers took the mound. However, many of these were "openers." Only three starters managed to pitch at least 100 innings, and only one with more than 10 starts had an ERA below four - mid-season pickup Cole Ragans.

Management's Decision to Invest in the Rotation

Rather than waiting for young arms to develop, the management decided to invest in the rotation through free agency. This is always a risky proposition due to arm injuries and the decline of players once they reach age 30. The Royals have had their share of unsuccessful free agent pitchers in the past, such as Storm Davis, Jeff Francis, and Jason Hammel.

The Signing of Seth Lugo

The Royals targeted Seth Lugo, a longtime reliever who they had pursued the previous off-season but he ended up going to San Diego. He became a starter there and had a solid season with a 3.57 ERA in 26 starts, good for 2.9 fWAR. The Royals enticed him to come to Kansas City with a three-year, $45 million deal. It was a gamble to rely on a 34-year-old with a short track record of starting, but it paid off immensely.Lugo finished second in baseball in innings pitched (208.2), 19th in strikeouts (181), had the 13th-lowest walk rate (5.7 percent), and the 7th-lowest home run rate (0.70). Overall, he was sixth among all pitchers in fWAR and was runner-up to Tarik Skubal for the American League Cy Young Award. Out of all the big pitchers signed last off-season, he was by far the best.

2023-24 Free Agent Starting Pitchers on Multi-Year Deals

This section presents a detailed look at the free agent starting pitchers on multi-year deals. It includes information such as years, salary, ERA, FIP, IP, and fWAR for each pitcher. For example, Seth Lugo signed a 3-year deal worth $45 million with an average annual value of $15 million. He had an ERA of 3.00, FIP of 3.25, pitched 206.2 innings, and had a fWAR of 4.7. Sonny Gray signed a 3-year deal worth $75 million with an average annual value of $25 million. He had an ERA of 3.84, FIP of 3.12, pitched 166.1 innings, and had a fWAR of 3.8. And so on for each pitcher.

Best Performances by Free Agent Starting Pitchers in First Year since 2014

This section compares the best performances by free agent starting pitchers in the first year since 2014. It includes details such as the pitcher's name, year, team, ERA, FIP, IP, and fWAR. For instance, Lance Lynn in 2019 with TEX had an ERA of 3.67, FIP of 3.13, pitched 208.1 innings, and had a fWAR of 6.8. Max Scherzer in 2015 with WSN had an ERA of 2.79, FIP of 2.77, pitched 228.2 innings, and had a fWAR of 6.5. And so on for each pitcher.

Regression and Lugo's Performance

Regression seems inevitable for Lugo, but by how much? He did pitch worse in the second half than in the first half, but his 3.84 ERA after the All-Star break is still very acceptable, and he had a 2.28 ERA in the month of September. Lugo succeeds by having a deep arsenal that keeps hitters guessing. He is one of just three pitchers last year who threw at least eight different pitches. His pitching coach Brian Sweeney claims he throws over ten. And all his pitches are quite effective. Only two pitches had an opponent's average over.250 - his sweeper and sinker. His fastball may seem unimpressive at 92 mph, but it was the 16th-most effective heater among starters. His slider, cutter, and curve all rank among the best in baseball.Lugo seems to lull opposing hitters into submission with his accountant looks and workmanlike attitude. He pounds the strike zone but still fools hitters. He had the seventh-highest rate of called strikes in baseball. When hitters do put the ball in play, Lugo is inducing weak contact - he had the 20th-lowest hard-hit rate. He also had the 21st-highest ground ball right, a smart strategy with one of the best defensive infields in baseball behind him. It also helps that he is a Gold Glove winner.Lugo just turned 35 a few weeks ago, and he has increased his innings pitched totals in each of the last five seasons. There has been a wave of reliever-turned-starters in baseball recently, such as Reynaldo López, Jordan Hicks, and Zack Littell. In recent history, Derek Lowe, Braden Looper, and CJ Wilson all made the transition later in their careers and had a few productive seasons as starters. Lugo may not be able to replicate his amazing 2024 season, but with his arsenal and intelligent approach to pitching, he has a great chance of being a productive pitcher in the next two seasons.

Poll: How would you grade Seth Lugo's 2024 season?

The poll shows that 96% of voters gave Seth Lugo an A grade for his 2024 season, with 29 votes. Only 3% gave him a B grade with 1 vote. There were no votes for C, D, or F grades.