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No. 21 Memphis Tigers at Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia finds itself in a unique situation as they face their first home game against a ranked opponent this season. Despite struggling against ranked teams earlier, this could be their chance to shine. According to Bart Torvik, Virginia plays at the slowest pace in the country, ranking 364 out of 364 teams in adjusted tempo. Combined with their 34th-ranked adjusted defense, this should act as a deterrent for the Memphis Tigers, preventing them from building an insurmountable lead.
The key to this matchup lies in Virginia's mediocre offense. While they are just 182nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, one area where they hold an advantage is their shooting from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers rank 39th in three-point percentage and 99th in three-point rate. Interestingly, the Tigers are 314th in three-point rate allowed. If Virginia can make their threes, it could significantly impact the outcome. Additionally, Memphis is excellent at getting to the foul line, ranking 11th in free throw rate. However, Virginia matches up well in this category as well, allowing free throws at the 6th-lowest clip. It's worth noting that the Tigers are an elite team in three-point percentage, ranking second-best. If they get hot from deep, things could quickly turn against Virginia. But luckily for the Cavaliers, Memphis also shoots threes at a low rate, ranking 297th, which could help mitigate the risk.
No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 24 Michigan Wolverines
The Sooners enter this matchup undefeated and with a higher ranking than the Wolverines, yet they are the underdogs. Michigan is ranked higher on Bart Torvik, with a 23rd vs. 49th ranking. While their status as favorites is justified, there is still an opportunity to back Oklahoma. Despite ranking 33rd in adjusted offense, Michigan has some notable weaknesses. They rank 335th in turnover rate, which is a significant concern against a Sooners defense that ranks 19th in defensive turnover rate. Additionally, the Wolverines don't get many free throws, with a 67.9% free throw percentage ranking 274th.
Oklahoma is not a slouch offensively either, ranking 40th in adjusted offense. While they are average on the offensive glass, they may be able to capitalize on Michigan's 273rd ranking in defensive rebounding rate. Both Massey Ratings and numberFire project Oklahoma to cover and even win straight up. The Sooners' moneyline is priced at +126, adding to the intrigue of this matchup.
Butler Bulldogs at No. 9 Marquette Golden Eagles
On Bart Torvik, Marquette is ranked 13th while Butler is 82nd, making this a challenging task for the Bulldogs. However, they could lose by double-digit points and still cover this high number. Both teams are coming into this game with a bit of a slump. Butler has lost three straight while Marquette has lost two of their last three. While this isn't a significant advantage for Butler, it at least means they aren't facing a red-hot team.
Statistically, Butler has a few things working in their favor. Offensively, they rank 5th in free throw rate and 19th in three-point percentage, giving them the ability to go on scoring runs. They also rank 22nd in effective field goal percentage defense, which should help slow down Marquette's 24th-ranked adjusted offense. Marquette, on the other hand, ranks 38th in three-point rate but only 156th in three-point percentage. A cold shooting night from beyond the arc is not out of the question for the Golden Eagles. Additionally, they rank 288th in free throw rate, so the Bulldogs don't have to worry too much about giving up points in that way.
Bart Torvik projects Marquette to win by 12 points while Massey Ratings has the margin at 10. NumberFire forecasts a 60.9% likelihood that Butler covers. With so many factors at play, it's an exciting time for college basketball bettors.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.