Unraveling Bryce Miller's Journey to Pitching Greatness
The Early Days
Miller burst onto the scene in 2023 with a dominant fastball. His fastball had above-average velocity and significant induced vertical break, making it difficult for hitters to make contact. He threw his fastball 70% of the time, which was more than any other pitcher in baseball, and it worked initially. But as the season progressed, he realized that he needed to diversify his pitch arsenal.During his rookie season, Miller faced difficulties against left-handed batters. They torched him with a batting average of.303, an on-base percentage of.358, and a slugging percentage of.458. This led him to seek a solution and develop a splitter.
The Splitter
Miller went straight to the lab and worked on developing a splitter. In December 2023, he shared his progress with the new pitch on his Twitter account. By the time the regular season rolled around, his splitter had become a key weapon. In his 2024 debut, he threw the splitter 20 times, 16 of which were against lefties. It forced six whiffs, earned a 40% chase rate, and allowed just one single.However, the splitter was still inconsistent. It had a 38.5% whiff rate in April but its effectiveness began to fade as the season wore on. David Adler wrote about the bizarre movement pattern of the splitter, and Miller himself admitted that the pitch "kind of has a mind of its own sometimes."
The Curveball
Miller is no stranger to adapting his pitches. He added a two-seamer as a rookie and then a splitter. Later, he learned a patented "spike curve" from reliever Mike Baumann. The new knuckle curve debuted on June 29th and started a string of 15 starts with a 1.94 ERA.The new curveball comes in much harder and moves more straight up and down, classified as a "death ball" shape. It plays off his fastball well and ties his repertoire together. Lance Brozdowski's YouTube video explains the death ball in more depth.
The Season in Review
Despite the twists and turns in his season, Miller had a very good overall performance. He ended the season with a 2.94 ERA across 180 1/3 innings and 171 strikeouts. According to FanGraphs' player rater, he was the seventh most valuable starting pitcher for fantasy.When looking at specific periods, from when he first used his knuckle curve, his 1.94 ERA trailed only Blake Snell, Paul Skenes, and Chris Sale. His 0.91 WHIP also trailed only Snell and teammate Logan Gilbert. He was in the top-20 in SIERA and K-BB%.
What's Next?
I'm extremely optimistic about Miller's future. Once he had both the curveball and splitter at his disposal, he became a dominant pitcher. Although he is currently ranked as the SP13 in early drafts, his performance last season and his potential make him a star.His teammates Gilbert and Kirby are being drafted higher, but that shouldn't overshadow Miller's abilities. He has a rock-solid fastball, multiple effective secondary pitches, and a knack for picking up new pitches. With the friendly confines of T-Mobile Park in Seattle, he is in one of the best situations for a pitcher.