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Albany Great Danes at Syracuse Orange (-12, 155)

Syracuse has had a rough start to the season, winning only against a few lower-tier teams. But there are signs of improvement. Their shooting from 3 is currently at a low 26%, which is unlikely to continue. Additionally, their free throw percentage of 67.6% is also not sustainable. The team has shown great improvement on the defensive glass, ranking fourth in ORB%. Against Albany, which has a putrid defense, Syracuse should have an offensive field day and cover the spread.

Albany's schedule strength is in the 300s, and opponents are shooting well against them. Syracuse has faced a tougher schedule according to Torvik and KenPom. As long as they play some defense, they should score enough to win by more than 12 points. It's a good bet for today.

Troy Trojans at Houston Cougars (-27, 132.5)

This is a mismatch between Troy and Houston. Troy has a high shot share on Close Twos this season, but Houston is tough to get to the rim, ranking 15th in FG% against Close Twos. Troy's shooting from mid-range 2s and 3s is not great, and they struggled against similar opponents like Arkansas and Oregon. A game like this also takes away Troy's advantages on the offensive glass. Houston plays at a slow pace and takes a lot of mid-range jumpers with a low FT Rate.

Given Houston's dominance and Troy's weaknesses, it's likely that the total will stay under 132.5. This is a game where Houston should win big, and Troy won't find many easy scoring opportunities. It's a safe bet for those looking for underdog value.