Football
College Football Playoff vs. NFL: Ratings Battle & Future Scheduling
2024-12-18
In American sports, there is a long-standing principle that Saturdays in the fall are dedicated to college football and Sundays to the NFL. This wasn't a random occurrence but was written into a bill passed by Congress and signed by President Kennedy in 1961. The main goal was to grant professional sports leagues an antitrust exemption for collective television rights negotiation and equal money distribution. During an era when anything related to communism was politically unfavored, this was no small achievement.

Key Aspects of the Deal

A crucial part of the deal was that the NFL would lose antitrust protections if it broadcast games from 6 p.m. on Friday nights until Sunday within 75 miles of a high school or college game. This effectively made Saturday legally protected as college football's day. However, 63 years later, there is a catch. The restrictions on the NFL are only valid through the second Saturday in December. Back then, it made sense as the college season was over except for the New Year's bowl games. But now, especially this year, it has led to direct competition between college and the NFL.

College Football on Saturday

This Saturday is set to be a bonanza like never before. At noon Eastern, SMU takes on Penn State, followed by Clemson vs. Texas. Then, at 8 p.m., Tennessee plays at Ohio State in temperatures expected to be in the teens. It is projected to be one of the greatest days in college football history. The top quarterbacks in the transfer portal are being ranked, and all 35 college football bowl games are being evaluated. But it will also be overshadowed by the fact that the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs will be playing during the second quarter of the SMU-Penn State game, and the Pittsburgh Steelers-Baltimore Ravens clash will be running concurrently with Clemson-Texas.

For sports viewers and fans, this is an exciting time. The variety of games and matchups provides a unique experience. College football is trying to make its mark on these Saturdays, but it has to compete with the NFL, which has a strong hold on this time slot.

The NFL's Advantage

Reality check shows that the NFL would be a two-touchdown favorite to win the ratings battle on Saturday. A year ago, the Week 16 games on Saturday drew 14.3 million viewers on NBC for Pittsburgh-Cincinnati and 7.3 million for Bills-Chargers on Peacock. This year, the NFL matchups are even more attractive as all four teams are likely playoff-bound and both games will be shown on over-the-air networks.

As football fanatics with access to multiple devices, it's a great time. But the stark comparison to the NFL highlights the potential issue with the expanded College Football Playoff. By adding more teams and rounds and extending the season, college football is encroaching on the NFL's territory.

The Scheduling Dilemma

The direct conflict between college football and the NFL is a continuation of scheduling issues that have plagued the College Football Playoff from the start. In the first 10 years of the playoff, ratings were generally good on New Year's Day but not as good on other days. This shows that college football doesn't have the power to shape viewing behavior like the NFL.

With bowl and television contracts expiring in 2026, the playoff will have more flexibility. This year, there will be a New Year's Day triple header, but the semifinals will be on Jan. 9 and 10 (a Thursday and Friday night) to avoid interfering with the NFL's wild card weekend. The conclusion on Jan. 20 will be the day after the NFL's conference championship matchups.

In an ideal world, college football would end on New Year's Day like it did for decades. But without shortening the regular season, moving the start date earlier, or eliminating conference championship games, the CFP will always be in a battle with the NFL. This weekend will provide the first data set to see if college football will pay a price.

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