HorseRacing
Fair Odds in Ky. Jockey Club: Derby Points Race Value
2024-11-29
Jonathan's Way has long been regarded as a force to be reckoned with in horse racing. However, his recent seventh-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile has raised some doubts about his ability to maintain his unbeaten streak. In the upcoming Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs, will he be able to rise to the occasion and prove his worth once again?

Unraveling the Mystery of Jonathan's Way's Racing Future

Jonathan's Way's Tactical Nature

Jonathan's Way's previous wins came from both off the pace and gate to wire, showcasing his tactical versatility. When chasing gate-to-wire winner Citizen Bull in the recent Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he was far out of it initially but ran strongly late to earn a 106 Brisnet late-pace rating. This indicates his ability to make a late charge and potentially turn the tide of a race. However, the question remains whether he truly wants to go the distance and handle the demands of a longer race.

His tactical nature adds an element of unpredictability to his races. Will he be content to sit back and make a late move, or will he try to take the lead from the start? Trainers and bettors alike will be closely watching his behavior on Saturday to try and gain an edge.

Surface and Pedigree Considerations

He's Not Joking, at 8-1 on the morning line, impressed in his first start around two turns with a win in the Grey Stakes (G3) on Tapeta. This will be his dirt debut, but his pedigree by Practical Joke out of a Central Banker mare gives some confidence. Practical Joke is known for producing talented runners, and the mare's bloodline also adds to his potential.

While there is some concern about his future beyond 8 1/2 furlongs, that is not a factor in this particular race with the rail draw. The track conditions and the layout of the racecourse will play a significant role in determining his performance. Will he be able to adapt to the dirt surface and handle the challenges of the Kentucky Jockey Club?

Other Contenders to Watch

First Resort deserves a second look after his one-turn mile turf try last out. At 9-2 on the morning line, he may be undervalued. If bettors overbet Jonathan's Way, then First Resort could be the one to drift and offer value. His performance in this race will depend on his ability to handle the change in surface and distance.

Tiztastic, at 5-1 on the morning line, needs things to go his way as a closer. If his price goes up, he could be a viable option for those looking to get underneath the favorites. His closing speed and ability to make a late charge could give him an edge in certain situations.

More Stories
see more