Football
Fantasy Football Waiver Picks for Mahomes & Montgomery Absences
2024-12-16
Formerly a manager at a Fortune 100 financial services company, Eric Moody is now living his dream by crafting fantasy and sports betting content centered around the NFL, NBA, and WNBA for ESPN. This journey showcases the ever-changing nature of the sports world and the importance of making strategic moves in both fantasy and real-life leagues.

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The fantasy playoffs have kicked off in Week 15 for most leagues. Whether you're aiming for the championship or trying to avoid a last-place punishment that could go viral, Eric Moody is here to provide valuable assistance. Every week, he helps identify players available in more than 50% of ESPN leagues whose value has improved and should be added to your roster.

NFL: A "Next Man Up" League

In the NFL, it's truly a "next man up" league. This principle extends to fantasy football as well. During the draft, you acquire your team, but it's the moves you make throughout the season and now in the post-season that determine your success. Davante Adams, Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mike Evans, Lamar Jackson, and Brian Thomas Jr. all had significant performances on Sunday, with some celebrating and others cursing their luck.

However, not all players lived up to expectations. Two of the top running backs in fantasy, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, had subpar outings. Injuries also play a crucial role in shaping fantasy teams. Patrick Mahomes, for instance, is currently listed as week-to-week with an ankle injury. Despite not being a fantasy juggernaut this season, averaging just 16.7 points per game, he was still started in 68.1% of leagues. His absence would be a significant blow to the Kansas City Chiefs offense and their fantasy-relevant players.

Detroit Lions' RB Situation

The Detroit Lions received bad news on Monday. David Montgomery suffered a sprained MCL on Sunday and will be out indefinitely, potentially for the remainder of the 2024 season. Jahmyr Gibbs is likely to get the bulk of the backfield touches going forward, but he's already widely rostered.

Enter Craig Reynolds (0.2% rostered), who now finds himself on the fantasy radar. With Montgomery averaging 15.8 touches per game, Reynolds could step in behind a Detroit offensive line that ranks 13th in run block win rate. The Lions, who are currently tied for the fourth-most rushing attempts per game, rely heavily on their backs. It's a prime time to stash Reynolds and keep an eye on his potential contributions.

Next QBs Up

Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (43.8% rostered in ESPN leagues): Rodgers had a season-high 30.0 fantasy points on Sunday against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the most QB fantasy points. Now, he'll face the Rams, Bills, and Dolphins in the closing weeks of the season, all of which are favorable matchups. With receivers like Adams and Garrett Wilson, who combined for 57.4 points in Week 15, Rodgers is set up for a strong finish.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (39.4%): Stafford struggled last Thursday with just 8.2 fantasy points against the 49ers, but poor weather was a major factor. Remember, he has Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp as his top targets, which helped him score 19-plus fantasy points in two of his previous three games. With upcoming matchups against the Jets, Cardinals, and Seahawks - two of which are at home - Stafford is in a great position for the rest of the season.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (44.8%): Relying on a rookie quarterback like Williams may make some nervous, but consider this. Over his last four games, Williams has averaged 20.8 fantasy points. On Monday night, he faces the Vikings (against whom he dropped 26.9 points in Week 12) and in Week 16, it will be the Lions (against which he scored 26.1 points in Week 13). The Bears then have the Seahawks and Packers to close out the season, both matchups where he can thrive.

Next RBs Up

Sincere McCormick, Las Vegas Raiders (32.6%): McCormick made his debut in Week 12 after spending years on the practice squad and injured reserve. Since then, his role has grown each week, with more snaps, carries, and rushing yards. While Alexander Mattison is expected to play on Monday night against the Falcons, head coach Antonio Pierce has already named McCormick as the starter moving forward. With favorable matchups against the Jaguars, Saints, and Chargers, McCormick could emerge as a league-winner.

Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (32.4%): Nick Chubb suffered a broken foot early in the third quarter on Sunday against the Chiefs and will miss the rest of the season. Ford finished the game with nine touches, resulting in 18.4 fantasy points. He had been handling the passing-down work in the backfield while Chubb took care of the early downs. D'Onta Foreman, who was a healthy scratch, could step up to fill the void for the remainder of the year. However, Ford has been productive whenever he's received consistent touches, and the Browns would be wise to rely on him.

Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints (8.0%): Alvin Kamara went down with a groin injury in the second half against the Commanders on Sunday and did not return. In his absence, Miller stepped up with nine carries for 46 yards, while Jamaal Williams did not see any action. With the Saints sitting at 5-9, there's no rush to get Kamara back on the field. This sets up the rookie RB to be the featured back and fantasy difference-maker for the rest of the season, especially with a favorable schedule ahead against the Packers, Raiders, and Buccaneers.

Next WRs Up

Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers (40.4%): Doubs finished with 19 fantasy points on Sunday night against the Seahawks, thanks to his two receiving touchdowns. He leads all Packers' pass-catchers in routes per game, averaging 5.2 targets and 10.3 fantasy points this season. Looking ahead, the Packers have two favorable matchups against the Saints and Vikings, both of which rank in the top eight most generous defenses in terms of WR fantasy points allowed. Doubs is a great pickup.

Adding Jalen McMillan

Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10.2%): McMillan had only 36.5 fantasy points over his first eight games this season. But over the last two weeks, he more than doubled that output, with a total of 40.4 fantasy points. Interestingly, McMillan and Mike Evans have run the same number of routes during that span, with Evans holding only a 16-13 lead in targets. In the next three weeks, the Buccaneers face the Cowboys, Panthers, and Saints. Dallas and New Orleans are both among the top 10 best matchups for wideouts to score fantasy points. The rookie is a player you should be looking to add, especially in deeper leagues.

Next TE Up

Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars (2.0%): Strange stepped up as the Jaguars' clear TE starter on Sunday against the Jets with Evan Engram out for the season due to a shoulder injury. He finished with a season-high 12 targets and 18.3 fantasy points. This wasn't a surprise, given how well he played earlier this season when filling in for Engram. He's a solid option if you need a tight end, especially with upcoming matchups against the Raiders (who sit fourth in terms of the most TE fantasy points allowed), followed by the Titans in Week 17 and the Colts (who sit fifth) in Week 18.

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