Last year's Grade 1 Japan Cup was all about Equinox, who lived up to the hype and was crowned global Horse of the Year. This year, a competitive local group faces the most ambitious foreign challenge in a long time. Do Deuce, the 2022 Yushun Himba winner and fourth in the 2023 Japan Cup, is back and fresh after a late-running victory in the Grade 1 Tenno Sho (Autumn). Cervinia, the recent Grade 1 Shuka Sho winner, aims to join the elite as a 3-year-old filly winner of the Japan Cup. Stars on Earth, a 5-year-old mare, has been in the top three in seven of her eight Grade 1 starts, winning twice. Justin Palace has also been a consistent performer. The raiders include Goliath, the romping winner of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and Auguste Rodin, a six-time Group 1 winner. Auguste Rodin is the first foreign-trained offspring of Deep Impact to race in Japan. Interestingly, the Japan Cup lost last year's runner-up, Liberty Island, to the Group 1 Hong Kong Cup, but Goliath and Fantastic Moon have entries for the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase on Dec. 8. Their participation depends on their performance on Sunday and recovery.
In another twist, Hong Kong's racing scene is heating up. Hong Kong superstar Romantic Warrior seeks his third win in the Longines Hong Kong Cup at 2,000 meters, facing tough rivals from Japan, Ireland, England, and France. Ka Ying Rising, another Hong Kong superstar, is likely to be the day's "banker" in the Longines Hong Kong Sprint at 1,200 meters. His opponents include the winners of the last two Breeders' Cup Turf Sprints. The Longines Hong Kong Mile is missing the retired Golden Sixty but Voyage Bubble and Galaxy Patch look set to take on the challenge. Japan's Soul Rush may be the best of the invaders. The Longines Hong Kong Vase at 2,400 miles usually favors foreign-trained horses, and this year seems no different.
This week, it's the "Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby" kicking off on Saturday at Tokyo Racecourse. It's a four-race series worth noting, as last year's winners included Forever Young and T O Password, who went on to finish third and fifth in the Run for the Roses. When in doubt, bet on the jockeys. Christophe Lemaire is aboard Clay King, a Nadal colt with a first and third-place finish in two starts. Ryan Moore rides Dragon Welds, a Kentucky-bred colt by Frosted, who won his only previous start. Holly Doyle gets on Bolt Tesoro, a Thunder Snow colt, and Tom Marquand takes the call on Takano Babylon, by Henny Hughes. Both are 1-for-1. Nadal has three runners in the field, including a filly who was undefeated in 2020 after winning several prestigious races but suffered a leg injury.
In other action:
Saturday's $300,000 Grade III Commonwealth Turf for 3-year-olds has nine contenders vying for 1 1/16 miles, and many have a good chance. There should be decent pari-mutuel returns. By contrast, Too Sharp is the sharp 2-1 morning-line favorite in Saturday's $300,000 Grade III Chilukki Stakes for fillies and mares. The Twirling Candy 3-year-old comes off a victory at Keeneland on Oct. 12.
Saturday's $100,000 Grade III Native Diver Stakes has a contentious field of six going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. Mixto, Ultra Power, and Tarentino are all favored by the oddsmaker. Eight fillies and mares are entered in Sunday's $100,000 Grade III Red Carpet Stakes at 1 3/8 miles on the turf. Forever After was second in the Grade III Dowager at Keeneland last time out, putting her in a good position. Mrs. Astor was fourth in the same race and is showing improvement.