Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki is on the verge of being posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines during the upcoming Winter Meetings in Dallas. This move will open a 45-day window for the 23-year-old right-hander to secure a deal with an MLB team. However, Sasaki plans to wait until the 2025 international amateur signing period begins on January 15. Chiba Lotte announced their intention to post Sasaki on November 9.

Impressive Pitching Stats and Achievements

Sasaki, who turned 23 on November 3, is renowned as one of the most gifted young pitchers globally. His arsenal includes a fastball that reaches 100 mph, a lethal splitter, and a steadily improving slider. His on-field results are equally remarkable. Over four seasons with the Marines, he has amassed a 2.02 ERA, recording 524 strikeouts and 91 walks in 414 2/3 innings.In 2022, Sasaki tossed the 16th perfect game in NPB history against the Orix Buffaloes. He also tied the NPB record with 19 strikeouts and set a record with 13 consecutive K’s. Following that, he had another flawless start against the Nippon Ham-Fighters, throwing eight perfect innings with 14 K’s.

2024 Performance and Regression

In 2024, Sasaki did face a slight downturn from his previous heights. His ERA (2.35), WHIP (1.04), strikeout rate (28.7%), walk rate (7.1%), and K/BB ratio (4.03) all showed a decline. Additionally, his average fastball velocity dropped from 98.9 mph to 96.9 mph year over year.

MLB Pursuit and Comparisons

Sasaki should ignite a fierce pursuit from MLB clubs, similar to the widespread interest Shohei Ohtani received when he made the move from NPB to MLB in 2017. Ohtani agreed to a $2.315 million signing bonus with the Angels that December.An unrestricted market would have allowed Ohtani to seek a significantly larger contract, but foreign-born players are subject to international bonus pool money restrictions unless they are at least 25 years old and have played as a professional in a foreign league recognized by Major League Baseball for a minimum of six seasons. Sasaki now falls into this category, just like Ohtani did in 2017. Whichever MLB team signs Sasaki will have him under control for six years of service time before he becomes eligible for unrestricted free agency.On the other hand, Yoshinobu Yamamoto had already turned 25 years old when he was posted by Orix last offseason, so he was not bound by any salary restrictions in free agency. He inked a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers in December, the largest contract for a pitcher in baseball history. His deal came less than a month after Ohtani signed a record 10-year, $700 million contract with Los Angeles as a free agent. The two Japanese stars played a crucial role in helping the Dodgers win a World Series championship in 2024.The opportunity to join his countrymen on the Dodgers, whose global brand remains strong, could be highly appealing for Sasaki. Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Sasaki played together during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, leading Samurai Japan to a WBC title. However, a deal for Sasaki to join the Dodgers is not a certainty. He will have several enticing options once he is posted.According to the rules of the posting system, the MLB club that signs Sasaki will have to pay a “release fee” to Chiba Lotte. For Major League contracts with a total guaranteed value of $25 million or less, the release fee is 20% of the total guaranteed value of the contract. If no agreement is reached during the 45-day window, Sasaki will return to his NPB club for the 2025 season and will not be eligible for posting again until the next offseason.