Baseball
Juan Soto's Winter Meeting Dilemma: Where to Sign?
2024-11-27
NEW YORK — Juan Soto is on a tight schedule as he prepares to decide on his next baseball team. The winter meetings in Dallas, set to run from Dec. 8-12, will play a crucial role in this decision-making process. Soto has met with several major league teams, including the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, and Toronto Blue Jays. Details of these negotiations have been kept under wraps, but the anticipation is high.

Unraveling Juan Soto's Winter Meeting Journey

Meeting with the Big Leagues

Soto's agent, Scott Boras, has been actively involved in the negotiations. He asked teams to submit initial offers by Thanksgiving, adding to the excitement. Soto is not just any player; he is a four-time All-Star and one of the top free agents this year. With a career average of.285, 201 homers, 592 RBIs, and 769 walks over seven major league seasons, he is a force to be reckoned with.In 2022, Soto turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Washington Nationals. This led to his trade to San Diego and then to the Yankees last December. During his time with the Yankees, he combined with Aaron Judge to lead the team to the World Series, only to lose to the Dodgers.

Boras' Pitch to the Teams

Boras has been highlighting Soto's remarkable achievements. He pointed out that Soto joined Mickey Mantle as the only players with seven RBIs in a World Series at age 21 or younger while with Washington. At just 20, he became the youngest player with five postseason homers. His.906 postseason OPS through age 25 tops Mantle's.900 and Derek Jeter's.852.The question on everyone's mind is how much money Soto will get. He is likely to seek a record contract, topping Shohei Ohtani's 10-year, $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers last December. Ohtani's deal included $680 million in deferred money, which can be valued differently. Under MLB's luxury tax system using a 4.43% discount rate, Ohtani's contract is valued at $46.1 million per season. The players' association uses a 5% rate, which puts Ohtani's contract at $43.8 million per year. For MLB's regular payroll calculations with a 10% discount rate, Ohtani's deal is valued at just $28.2 million.If Soto gets even $462 million without deferred payments, there is an argument that his deal is the most valuable in MLB history. By average annual value, pitchers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are tied for second in baseball history at $43.33 million as part of their contracts with the New York Mets, which expired at the end of 2024.In terms of total value, Ohtani surpassed outfielder Mike Trout's 12-year, $426.5 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels through 2030. MLB's longest contract is outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr.'s 14-year deal with the San Diego Padres through 2034.

MLB's Luxury Tax and Team Bids

The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, and Philadelphia Phillies are likely to enter 2025 having paid luxury tax for three straight years, putting them at the highest rate. The surcharges range from a 50% increase on payroll between $241 million and $261 million to 110% for each dollar above $301 million. Toronto may have dropped below the initial tax threshold this year, pending final figures next month. If they did fall under, their rates next year would reset to 20%, 32%, 62.5%, and 80% for the four thresholds.

Winter Meetings as a Record Deal Announcement Venue

If Soto reaches or announces an agreement at the winter meetings in Dallas' Hilton Anatole, it would be a familiar location for a big Boras deal. Alex Rodriguez's record 10-year, $252 million contract with the Texas Rangers was announced in December 2000 at what was then called the Wyndham Anatole Hotel. A-Rod's deal more than doubled MLB's previous high, an eight-year, $121 million contract between pitcher Mike Hampton and Colorado that was announced just two days earlier.Besides Soto, there are other significant free agent hitters available. Third baseman Alex Bregman, first basemen Pete Alonso and Christian Walker, and outfielders Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández are among the bats that teams may pursue if they fail to sign Soto. Bregman and Alonso are also represented by Boras.
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