Recent findings from a study published in Health Economics suggest that a nationwide ban on menthol cigarettes in the United States may lead to an increase in smokers attempting to quit. However, it also raises concerns about fostering an illegal market for these products. The research involved 639 adult menthol cigarette users who were presented with various scenarios involving legal and illegal access to menthol and non-menthol tobacco products. Participants evaluated their choices under different conditions, including situations where menthol products were prohibited but still accessible through illicit channels. The results highlight potential challenges policymakers might face if such a ban is implemented.

The study explored how menthol smokers would react to different regulatory environments. In one scenario, menthol cigarettes were banned but available through unauthorized retailers at prices similar to current levels, while menthol e-cigarettes remained legal. Under these conditions, nearly one-third of participants indicated they would seek out illegal menthol cigarettes, while a smaller percentage opted for non-menthol alternatives. Another scenario considered a stricter enforcement regime where menthol cigarettes were only available through illegal street markets. Even in this case, almost 30% of respondents said they would purchase menthol cigarettes illegally. These findings underscore the complexity of implementing effective tobacco control policies.

Researchers noted that many menthol smokers are prepared to engage in illegal markets to obtain their preferred product. This behavior could undermine the intended outcomes of a menthol cigarette ban. If menthol cigarettes are prohibited, ensuring access to lower-risk nicotine sources, like menthol e-cigarettes, becomes crucial. Policymakers must carefully weigh these factors to develop strategies that effectively reduce smoking rates without creating unintended consequences.

The empirical evidence indicates that a prohibition on menthol cigarettes might not achieve its desired effects as anticipated. It highlights the need for comprehensive policy considerations that address both the supply and demand sides of the market. Providing acceptable alternatives for nicotine consumption is essential to support public health goals and mitigate the risks associated with illegal market activities.