Unleashing Clay Holmes in the Mets' Rotation

Transitioning from Bullpen to Rotation

With an extensive resume covering high-leverage innings in the Bronx, one might expect the Mets to simply plug Holmes into the bullpen behind Edwin Díaz. However, they have a different plan. Holmes has only four major league starts under his belt, all from his rookie campaign in 2018. But he has extensive experience as a starter in the minor leagues. This offseason, they're taking a chance on his ability to handle the increased workload and thrive in the starting rotation.

The Mets' search for effective starting pitching has led them to look beyond the traditional roles. In recent years, teams have turned to the bullpen for starting pitchers, and the Mets are no exception. Garrett Crochet, Reynaldo López, and Jordan Hicks have all made the jump from the bullpen to the rotation this season. Seth Lugo, Michael King, and Zack Littell made a similar shift last year. While not all transitions have been successful, the Mets are hopeful that Holmes can join the ranks of the successful starters.

Evaluating Holmes' Pitch Arsenal

Holmes has a three-pitch mix that includes a bowling ball sinker, two distinct sliders (a harder gyro slider and a slower Yankees-style sweeper), and a four-seamer that he threw sparingly in the past. His hard slider is a neutral pitch that is effective against both left-handed and right-handed batters. His sinker doesn't have a significant platoon split, which can be attributed to the vertical movement he generates with the pitch. However, his sweeper has a 102-point split, which is a cause for concern.

During the postseason, Holmes showed a glimpse of his potential with a four-seam fastball. He struck out Vinnie Pasquantino with the pitch, demonstrating its potential as a change-of-pace pitch. Reintroducing his changeup or adding a splitter could give him an extra wrinkle in his arsenal. But it remains to be seen how much he is willing to tinker with his pitch mix at this point.

Assessing the Impact of Velocity Loss

When Eno Sarris examined relievers making the transition to starting, he found that their repertoires lost around eight points of Stuff+ overall, with their fastballs losing around 12 points. If Holmes experiences a similar loss of velocity (and spin), his pitches could perform differently. When his sinker is thrown at 94 mph or slower and his slider at 86 mph or slower, they perform worse. But the sample sizes at lower velocity thresholds are small, so it's difficult to predict exactly how his pitches will fare.

Still, Holmes' slider remains effective at generating swings and misses even at lower velocities, and his sinker still pounds into the ground. If he can maintain his current level of effectiveness with his pitches, he may be able to succeed in the rotation despite the potential velocity loss.

The Opt-Out Clause and the Path Forward

The opt-out after the second year of the deal gives Holmes the ability to test the market again if things go swimmingly. This gives him the opportunity to prove himself in the starting rotation and potentially earn a larger contract down the line. If he struggles, he can always fall back on his familiar role as a high-leverage reliever.

Whether Holmes expands his repertoire or sticks with his current mix, he has the tools needed to succeed in the rotation. He just needs to show that he can handle the increased workload and perform consistently. The Mets are taking a calculated risk with this move, but it could pay off if Holmes can live up to their expectations.