Unveiling the Orioles' New Prospect Landscape
Don't Let the Lack of a No. 1 Prospect Fool You
In the grand scheme of things at Baseball America, I have no say in how the overall Top 100 list is structured. But it's safe to say that the Orioles' streak of having a No. 1 overall prospect is coming to an end. Take Samuel Basallo, for instance. He spent almost all of his 19-year-old season at Double-A, which is over four years younger than the average age at that level. Despite this, he had an impressive.820 OPS and 16 home runs, with a wRC+ of 133, indicating he was 33% better than the league average. His season had its ups and downs, but he ended up hitting the ball harder more often and learned valuable lessons. Coby Mayo also had a great season at Triple-A Norfolk, despite some challenges in the big leagues. In 2022 and 2023, he faced difficulties at a certain level but came back strong the next year. I believe the same will happen when he gets another chance in the majors. Both players are slightly behind their predecessors for several reasons, mainly the questions about their long-term positions. But they are still credits to the organization.
These two outfielders in the middle of the list will be the litmus test for this wave of development. Vance Honeycutt, the top pick this year, already has a to-do list for the winter to make his swing path more consistent and improve his contact rate to unlock his considerable raw power. Enrique Bradfield Jr., the 2023 top pick, spent the year improving his line-drive rate. As he refined his swing decisions in Bowie, he drove the ball more. For him, consistent, line-drive contact is the key to getting on base and causing chaos. Dylan Beavers and Jud Fabian are a bit older and finished the year at Triple-A Norfolk. Beavers hit the ball harder earlier in the season but needs to work on consistently tapping into his power. Fabian struck out less in Bowie but faced challenges in Norfolk. These archetypes - contact skills with the need to add power and power with the need to make better contact - are the two main categories that recent additions to the farm system fall into. As the Orioles move away from picking at the top of the draft, their ability to get the most out of these skill sets and deliver well-rounded hitters will be crucial.
Michael Forret Leads a Tremendous Wave of Homegrown Pitching
Chayce McDermott, acquired in a three-team trade in 2022, is the top pitcher in the organization due to his high floor and proximity to the majors. Michael Forret emerging as the next homegrown arm is significant. He wasn't the only one considered for that spot, but for all the reasons outlined in this "Arms on the Farm" installment, he ended up being the second pitcher on the list. Other homegrown arms in contention for the Top 10 included Nestor German, Trey Gibson, Cameron Weston, Keeler Morfe, and Luis De León. I honestly can't remember writing as many interesting pitcher reports as I did this year, and there wasn't even enough space in the Top 30 for all the pitchers I wanted to add. Imagine if players like Jackson Baumeister, Seth Johnson, and Moisés Chace were still around - the pitching inventory would be even deeper. Regardless, the pitching department has taken off, and if the number of success stories on this list is any indication, this is just the beginning.
The Orioles have a diverse group of pitchers, each with their own potential. McDermott's consistency and proximity to the majors make him a key player. Forret's rise shows the organization's ability to develop homegrown talent. The other pitchers in the mix also bring unique skills and qualities. If they can continue to develop and perform, the Orioles' pitching staff will be in good shape.
Basallo is Going to be Replaced by Another International Signee
In the rankings process, my blind spot is always the complex leagues, especially the international signees who take time to move up through the system. This year's cohort has faced challenges due to the lack of short-season ball and the gap in competition between the Florida Complex League and Low-A Delmarva. It takes time for their talent to shine. Basallo has always been different, and this year's list makes me think that when he graduates - maybe late next year or in 2026 - there will be another Top 10 prospect in the organization from the international signing program. None made the Top 10 this year, but outside of recent draftees, some of the highest-ranked hitters in the organization are now international signees like Leandro Arias, Stiven Martinez, Aron Estrada, Thomas Sosa, Jordan Sanchez, and Joshua Liranzo. Morfe and De León are the top international arms and have the potential to make a big leap as well.
The international signing program has been a source of talent for the Orioles, and it will continue to play a significant role in the future. As players like Basallo graduate and make way for the next generation, the organization will rely on these international signees to fill the void and contribute to the success of the team.
There's a Mixture of High-Floor Players and High-Ceiling Ones
If any of the high-ceiling gambles pay off, the Orioles will have another star to add to their roster. Basallo was an early success story, but the rest are taking the appropriate amount of time. Considering these players were signed at 16, it's not surprising that they need time to develop. Just like the pitching program, the results are starting to show. The Orioles have a mix of players with different levels of potential, and it will be exciting to see which ones reach their full potential and contribute to the team's success.
From the high-floor players like McDermott to the high-ceiling prospects like Basallo and the international signees, the Orioles have a diverse group of talent. Each player brings something unique to the table, and as they continue to develop, they have the potential to make a big impact on the team.
Free Agents to Watch
Last week, Yusei Kikuchi agreed to a three-year, $63 million deal with the Angels. Now, it's time for the Orioles to start signing some players. Austin Hays, who was dealt to the Phillies in July for right-hander Seranthony Domínguez and outfielder Cristian Pache, is now a free agent. Baltimore is a potential destination for him, and he fits the right-handed hitting outfield profile they're looking for. I really enjoy Hays as a player, but considering the playing time available for other outfielders like Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad against right-handed pitchers, it's not clear if he would sign for a platoon role. And despite his offensive talents, Hays' 5.7% career walk rate may not be exactly what the Orioles are looking for as they try to stabilize the offense.
The Orioles have some decisions to make with their free agents, and it will be interesting to see how they navigate the market and add to the team's depth.
For Further Reading
Buck Britton's promotion: Having Buck Britton on the major league staff will be a great addition. His combined with Robinson Chirinos and the new voices on the hitting side will bring unique perspectives to the coaching staff and make the Orioles better. (The Baltimore Banner)
Jacob Webb: The Orioles got a lot of good innings out of Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb. Webb wasn't tendered a contract, but the team has shown they can find relief talent anywhere. His departure will be missed, but it's a testament to the organization's ability to develop and acquire talent. (The Baltimore Banner)
Two More Pitchers: After the 2022 season, Kade Strowd was a dark horse to be added to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft. His stuff is really good, but inconsistency caused a two-year wait. If he has made the improvements the club thinks he has, he's worth keeping. (The Baltimore Banner)