The 2025 fantasy football playoffs have brought to light the struggles of managers who opted to draft quarterbacks later in their drafts. Several notable players, including Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, and Sam Darnold, have seen significant declines in their projected value. Additionally, quarterbacks once expected to rise into the top tier, such as Tua Tagovailoa, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray, and Brock Purdy, have underperformed in 2024. This has made it increasingly challenging to establish a solid top 12 in single-quarterback leagues. The elite tier is well-defined with Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, and Joe Burrow leading the pack, but these players come at a high draft cost. Patrick Mahomes, once a top-tier option, now ranks sixth among experts and has been a losing proposition for many managers.
Elite Quarterbacks: Worth the Investment?
The decision to invest early draft picks in top-tier quarterbacks has become a contentious issue. Managers must weigh the benefits of securing elite talent like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, and Joe Burrow against the risk of overspending on a position that historically offers late-round value. These premier quarterbacks are undeniably valuable but come with a hefty price tag, often requiring picks in the fifth round or earlier. Historically, some of the best-performing quarterbacks have emerged from the later rounds or even waivers, making this strategy less appealing. In 2024, players like Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Bo Nix, and Darnold provided solid returns without the high draft capital.
The allure of drafting an elite quarterback early lies in the assurance of having a reliable starter. However, history suggests that paying premium prices for quarterbacks often leads to diminishing returns. For instance, Patrick Mahomes, once a consensus top-two pick, ended up as a bust (ranked 12th in scoring). Similarly, C.J. Stroud, who was drafted fifth last year, finished at 18th. These examples highlight the unpredictability of early quarterback selections. Managers need to consider whether spending valuable draft capital on a quarterback is worth the risk when cheaper alternatives could provide similar value. Winning in fantasy football often hinges on finding undervalued gems, and quarterbacks are no exception. The key is identifying those late-round picks that can deliver strong performances without breaking the bank.
Uncertainty Reigns: Late-Round QB Strategies
The uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position in 2025 has never been higher. Many players who struggled in 2024, such as Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams, and Tua Tagovailoa, are still being ranked highly by consensus. This presents a dilemma for managers trying to decide between drafting a struggling star or opting for a cheaper alternative. Players like Dak Prescott, currently ranked 18th, offer intriguing late-round value. The offseason changes, including coaching hires and roster additions, will play a crucial role in determining which quarterbacks can turn their fortunes around.
In this uncertain landscape, the strategy of waiting until the later rounds to select quarterbacks remains viable. Managers should focus on identifying players who can provide solid value without requiring significant draft investment. The success of late-round quarterbacks like Mayfield, Goff, Nix, and Darnold in 2024 underscores the potential rewards of this approach. It's important to remain flexible and adapt to the evolving dynamics of the league. Coaches' decisions, player health, and roster moves will all impact the performance of quarterbacks. By staying informed and open to change, managers can find hidden gems that might not be apparent at first glance. Ultimately, the goal is to assemble a team that can compete effectively while maximizing value across all positions, especially at quarterback where the right choice can make all the difference.