Blake Snell's career has been a rollercoaster ride, marked by both highs and lows. After a promising start, the left-handed pitcher found himself alternating between successful and disappointing seasons, leaving his future uncertain. However, a recent stretch of exceptional performances has reignited the conversation around Snell's potential and his ability to maintain his dominance on the mound.

Unlocking the Key to Consistency

Navigating the Ups and Downs

For the first six seasons of his career, Snell's performance was characterized by a pattern of alternating good and bad run prevention seasons. Despite his ability to rack up strikeouts, his high-K, high-walk approach resulted in significant variance in his success from year to year. This inconsistency simmered concerns about Snell's market value, even after he claimed his second career Cy Young award in 2023.

The Turning Point: 2024's Abbreviated Season

However, Snell's 80-inning stretch in 2024 appears to have been a turning point. This abbreviated season saved his year and, more importantly, eased concerns about his ability to maintain consistency. Over the past three seasons, Snell has posted impressive numbers, with a sub-3.40 ERA and sub-3.45 FIP, despite not having a large sample of innings outside of his Cy Young-winning campaign.

Sustaining Excellence: The Importance of Preparation

The 2024 season may have provided Snell with valuable insights into the preparation required to thrive over the course of a full campaign. As he looks to secure a long-term contract this offseason, Snell's ability to maintain his health and performance will be crucial. While it's difficult to predict how his body will hold up over the course of a five-year deal, the lessons learned from his abbreviated 2024 season could be instrumental in helping him navigate the challenges of a full season.

Snell's Evolving Arsenal: Adapting to Maintain Dominance

Alongside his improved consistency, Snell has also demonstrated a willingness to adapt and deepen his arsenal. In the past two seasons, he has reduced his reliance on his fastball and slider, instead increasing the usage of his curveball and changeup. This diversification of his pitch mix could be a key factor in helping Snell combat any potential decline in velocity as he ages.

Stuff Remains Elite: Maintaining the Edge

Despite the concerns about his long-term durability, Snell's stuff has remained elite throughout his career. In fact, his fastball velocity has actually ticked up slightly in each of the past four seasons, and his Stuff+ numbers have consistently been at the top of the league. This suggests that Snell's ability to overpower hitters with his electric stuff is not in jeopardy, at least in the near future.

Comparing Snell and Fried: Navigating the Aging Curve

When considering Snell's potential long-term contract, it's worth comparing him to his counterpart, Max Fried. While Snell's reliance on his electric stuff may make him more susceptible to the effects of aging, Fried's more diverse arsenal and ability to adapt could potentially allow him to withstand the aging curve better. However, Snell's recent improvements in pitch mix diversity may help mitigate this concern, providing a path for him to maintain his dominance as he gets older.In conclusion, Blake Snell's journey has been a testament to his resilience and adaptability. After a tumultuous start to his career, Snell has emerged as a consistent and dominant force on the mound, showcasing his ability to evolve and refine his approach. As he enters the free agent market, Snell's recent performances and his willingness to adapt should make him a highly sought-after commodity, with the potential to secure a lucrative long-term deal that could cement his legacy as one of the game's elite pitchers.