The fantasy football season reaches its climax with the fantasy semifinals upon us. Whether you're in a league with the standard playoff format or one with those peculiar two-week playoff matches, this week is make-or-break. Stick around after my Week 16 projections to plan ahead for the fantasy finals.

Unlock the Secrets of Fantasy Football's Semifinals

Streaming Defenses: Waiver Wire & Start/Sit Advice (Week 16)

In the world of fantasy football, at least 7 teams are running quarterbacks who won't be starters next year. This provides us with a decent selection of teams to stream defenses against. It's crucial to have a plan in place for this week. Rostership numbers come from Yahoo, and you can find me on Bluesky.

Week 16 Matchups

GB vs NO: Jake Haener got his first start for the Saints last week due to Derek Carr's injury. Haener was dreadful and was benched at halftime in favor of Spencer Rattler. Rattler is the better quarterback but still has his flaws. In three earlier starts this season, Rattler took 14 sacks, and the Saints scored 10 or fewer points in two of those games. These two games were against strong defenses like the Broncos and Chargers. However, the Packers are also a formidable opponent and should dominate this matchup.BUF vs NE: The Bills' defense had a tough time containing the Lions last week. But this week's matchup against the Patriots is a different story. Last week, Drake Maye extended his interception streak to 6 games and failed to reach 20 points against a mediocre Cardinals defense. The outlook for turnovers and sacks is positive here, especially if the Patriots decide to throw often to keep up with the Bills' high-scoring offense.ATL vs NYG: The Falcons' defense was (tied for the) #2 defense in fantasy last week. They had a safety, three turnovers, and three blocked kicks against a struggling Raiders offense. The Giants, led by Drew Lock, are equally bad. Lock was downgraded to emergency third quarterback last week due to a heel injury, and Tommy DeVito started initially. Tim Boyle took over after DeVito suffered a concussion. The Giants are a vulnerable team and can be exploited by a competent pass rush like the Falcons, regardless of who is under center.IND vs TEN: Last week, the Titans benched Will Levis after he threw a pick-six, which was his fourth turnover. Mason Rudolph played better, throwing a couple of touchdowns but also had another interception. Coach Brian Callahan will decide who to start in Week 16. Rudolph may not be as disastrous as Levis, but the offense is still struggling.KC vs HOU: C.J. Stroud managed to win by 20 points over the Dolphins last week, but the Chiefs present a different challenge. The second-year quarterback has not reached the heights of his rookie season and continues to take a high number of sacks, averaging 3.2 per game. The Chiefs are one of the best defenses in football and should be able to limit the scoring and increase the sacks this week.DET @ CHI: The Lions may have a lot of defensive players on the injured reserve list, but they are still capable of handling the Bears, who are in a downward spiral. Caleb Williams has extended his no-interception streak to 8 games, but the Bears have only scored 20 points once in that span and are 0-8. Williams has also taken an astonishing 4.1 sacks per game, putting him on track for one of the highest sack totals in history.MIN @ SEA: Geno Smith and the Seahawks scored only 13 points against the Packers last week without star running back Kenneth Walker III. Now they face a Vikings defense that is good but not great and is in a tight race for the NFC North title and the #1 seed in the NFC. Smith has had inconsistent sack totals, recording his 9th game with 3 or more sacks last week. We can expect a similar performance this week.ARI @ CAR: Bryce Young had his worst game in a while last week, committing four turnovers and taking a season-high 6 sacks. This was his first time with more than 2 sacks since Week 1. We don't expect to see that kind of sack total again, but the Panthers' 0-4 skid makes them a viable bet.HOU @ KC: Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain last week and is questionable for Week 16. It goes without saying that you shouldn't start a defense against Mahomes in the fantasy playoffs. However, if Carson Wentz starts, the Texans could be a viable option. Wentz was a star in his Eagles days but has not been that player for several years. He may be better than an average backup quarterback, but he is still a backup on an offense that has not been explosive, even with one of the best quarterbacks of all time.CIN vs CLE: Jameis Winston's interception problem flared up last week. He was benched after throwing a pick-six in the second half, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson took over. DTR was not great either, throwing an interception and seeing a 62-yard touchdown run by Jerome Ford as the Browns' only points. The Browns have decided to keep Winston on the bench this week. They drafted Thompson-Robinson in the 5th round in 2023 and he has had limited playing time with 3 starts last year. He has not been impressive, recording just one touchdown and 7 interceptions in his career so far. The Bengals are a scary defense to use as they are bad in a real football sense, but they were able to hold the Titans to 4 interceptions last week and should be a reasonable play against one of the worst offenses led by their third-string quarterback.

Planning Ahead

The fantasy playoffs are the time when it makes sense to allocate a bench spot to a defense to secure a good matchup in future weeks. I've been maintaining a Google sheet with my analysis of each offense's viability as a matchup for defenses and a schedule grid. Here are some teams that I think are worth stashing (or using this week) with an eye towards the fantasy finals in Week 17.The Philadelphia Eagles have been the best defense in football lately. They face the Cowboys in Week 17, which is a decent matchup but still viable for a defense of their caliber. If you're in a league with an extra week, the Eagles also get the Giants in Week 18.The Los Angeles Chargers are among the top defenses in the league. They have a great matchup against the Patriots in Week 17 and the Raiders in Week 18.The New Orleans Saints get to face the Raiders in Week 17, who have been one of the most consistent good matchups this year.The Las Vegas Raiders have a good matchup against the Jaguars this week and will be a viable option again in Week 17 against the Saints. We don't expect Derek Carr to return this season, but if he does, the Saints' defense will no longer be a good matchup.The Jacksonville Jaguars have two good matchups, against the Raiders this week and the Titans in Week 17.The Indianapolis Colts have good matchups for the rest of the season, with the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars in that order in the last 3 weeks.