The transition into a new fantasy baseball season has come quickly, with early drafts already underway and preparations in full swing. Based on recent average draft position (ADP) data from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC), here are five players who may not live up to expectations at their current draft costs.
Health Concerns and Risky Draft Picks
In the early rounds of drafts, it's crucial to weigh the risks associated with player health and consistency. Two notable players stand out for their uncertain futures: Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Gerrit Cole. Both have shown promise but carry significant concerns that could impact their performance in the upcoming season.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., despite his impressive plate appearance stats, has a history of injuries that make him a risky choice in deeper leagues. Last year marked the first time he played more than 100 games since 2021, raising doubts about his durability. In formats where replacement players can easily fill gaps, Chisholm might be worth considering. However, drafting him in the second round of deeper leagues is too much of a gamble. Similarly, Gerrit Cole's injury-limited 95 innings in 2024 raise questions about his ability to maintain high performance as he ages. His declining strikeout-to-walk ratio and reduced stuff over the past couple of seasons further complicate matters. While Cole remains a solid pitcher, his ADP suggests he might be overvalued compared to safer options available.
Pitching and Positional Risks in Relief and Batting
Relief pitchers and key positional players also present unique challenges in fantasy drafts. Robert Suarez, Marcus Semien, and Lane Thomas each bring distinct risks that could affect their value this season.
Robert Suarez, currently the 10th relief pitcher off the board, faces uncertainty due to his inconsistent second-half performance and competition within the bullpen. His decline in saves and ERA, coupled with potential replacements like Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada, makes him a questionable pick at his current ADP. Meanwhile, Marcus Semien enters his age-34 season after a disappointing 2024, showing signs of an aging player. With fewer home runs and stolen bases last year, Semien’s reliance on volume to produce numbers becomes less reliable. Lastly, Lane Thomas presents a platoon risk due to his struggles against right-handed pitching. His career statistics against righties mirror last year's poor performance, making his playing time uncertain if he falters early in the season. These factors combined suggest that Thomas might not deliver consistent value at his current draft position.