Photo: Jason Moran / Eclipse Sportswire – edited. The $500,000 Cigar Mile this month served as a crucial touchstone in defining a Grade 1 race. Conventional wisdom suggests it holds rich history, is adorned with decorated alumni, and notably features a large field consisting of five millionaires, four top-level winners, and three graduates of the Breeders’ Cup 2024. It truly walked and talked like a Grade 1 race. Whether this will remain the best race of the Aqueduct autumn as a Grade 2 for the third year is set to be decided on Monday and Tuesday when the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association gathers its 11-member American Graded Stakes Committee in Lexington, Kentucky.

Flashback: How the Committee Graded Stakes a Year Ago

If recent history is any indication, there will be a decrease in Grade 1 races in 2025. This has been an ongoing trend since 2009 when there were 115 top-level stakes out of a record 489 graded races. The numbers have gradually shrunk to 93 out of 429. This year, Grade 1 races made up 22% of the graded stakes compared to 24% in 2009.It is designed this way. According to the TOBA website, “Total number of graded races and the distribution of particular grades among the races are monitored by the committee to retain the approximate shape of a pyramid (with) Grade 1 races being the least numerous, Grade 2 races next and Grade 3 races the most numerous.”If the Cigar Mile were to regain its former status, it would go against the trend. It was one of the six New York Racing Association races that were demoted from Grade 1 to Grade 2 in the past five years. Others included the Vosburgh, Flower Bowl, Woodward, Carter Handicap, and Man o’ War. Only the Saratoga Derby Invitational and New York Stakes were upgraded to the top category during this time.Southern California seems to be the most susceptible to demotions due to eroding purses and skimpier fields in key races. Santa Anita and Los Alamitos have seen a combined six Grade 1 races cut to Grade 2s since 2020, such as the Chandelier, Santa Anita Oaks, Santa Anita Sprint Championship, Starlet, Rodeo Drive, and Hollywood Gold Cup. No new Grade 1 races have been added.High-profile races like the Santa Anita Handicap, the Santa Anita Derby, and Malibu have had issues with full fields in recent years. All three have experienced purse cuts recently, with the Big ’Cap and Malibu down to the Grade 1 minimum of $300,000 each. They have averaged no more than 7.6 starters per year since 2020.The five-year period is significant. As the TOBA website states, “Information supplied to the members of the (committee) includes statistical data for the last five years for all eligible races indicating quality of the field.” This quality is based on career performances, graded wins, and even Thoro-Graph ratings.Promoting a race is more challenging than demoting one. It requires eight out of 11 votes to move a race up, while only a simple majority is needed to drop it.Since the committee members will be focused for two long days on the makeup and results of nearly 1,000 races, arm-twisting will also play a role, as it has since TOBA launched the evaluation process in 1973. “Judgment and flexibility,” the TOBA website emphasizes, “thus must always be a part of the system.”Horse Racing Nation readers and social-media followers have shared their views through recent comments and posts.

About the Cigar Mile Being a Grade 2 Race

As the committee prepares for its annual assignment, here are some facts to consider. For instance, let's look at the number of Grade 1 races in each state this year.Grade 1s by state in 2024:New York - 31Arkansas - 2California - 19Pennsylvania - 2Kentucky - 19Maryland - 1Breeders’ Cup - 14New Jersey - 1Florida - 3Virginia - 1These are the 11 committee members responsible for deciding the classifications from black type and listed all the way to Grade 1:Amer. Gr. Stakes Cmte.AffiliationBrant Laue* - owner, Laue Ranch Racing StableBarbara Banke - owner, Stonestreet StablesWalker Hancock - outgoing president, Claiborne FarmBilly Koch - managing partner, Little Red Feather RacingDavid O’Farrell - general manager, Ocala StudRacing officialsAlex Solis II - bloodstock agent & partner, Solis-Litt BloodstockGatewood Bell - vice president of racing, KeenelandDan Bork - stakes coordinator, Churchill Downs & Ellis ParkMartin Panza - racing operations co-director, Kentucky DownsRick Hammerle - consultant, 1/ST Racing*TOBA chairpersonIf last year provides any precedent, the committee met early in the week and revealed its list of 2024 grades on that Saturday. So, the best advice is to be patient and wait.