Unraveling the Mysterious 2024 Slump of Adolis García
2023: A Season of Triumph
In February 2023, Michael Baumann wrote about Rangers outfielder Adolis García. A power-over-hit player with struggles to get on base and not playing a premium position. But García made very good contact the previous season. Despite initial trepidation, Baumann predicted García would take a step forward. And he did just that. García not only increased his slugging percentage by 50 points, going from 27 home runs to 39, but also nearly doubled his walk rate and improved his OBP from.300 to.328. This led to García making the All-Star team and being a postseason standout. In 15 postseason games, he hit eight home runs and had an impressive batting line of.323/.382/.726. His efforts culminated in him winning the ALCS MVP honors.
2024: The Mysterious Slump
After the Rangers' World Series defense, García's performance took a turn. In 2024, he played 154 games and contributed 25 home runs, but his batting average dropped to a meager.224/.284/.400. His wRC+ was 92 and he had a -0.2 WAR. The biggest part of his slump was on the defensive side. In 2023, he was one of the best defensive right fielders with plus range and a strong outfield arm. But this season, his defense tanked, from 2.9 runs above average to 17.0 runs below average, accounting for almost 40% of his decline.
Comparing 2023 and 2024
When we look at the stats, it's clear that García's performance has changed significantly. In 2023, he hit the ball with great power, with an xwOBA of.366 and an xSLG of.526. But in 2024, his xwOBA dropped to.306 and his xSLG to.413. His barrel% and hard-hit% also decreased. Against four-seamers, his performance was particularly affected. In 2023, he hit.197 against four-seamers with a whiff rate of 34.4%. But this year, his SLG against four-seamers dropped to.310 and his xSLG to.385, leaving him 15 runs below average.
Looking Ahead
While it's not all doom and gloom for García, there are concerns. His bat speed seems to have decreased, and as a result, his power has evaporated. His contact quality has also suffered, with his chase rate increasing and his walk rate dropping. Rangers GM Chris Young denied that García's struggles were injury-related, but there is reason to suspect that he may have lost a step. Only time will tell how García will bounce back, but his story is one that baseball fans will be watching closely.
Michael is a writer at FanGraphs. Previously, he was a staff writer at The Ringer and D1Baseball, and his work has appeared at Grantland, Baseball Prospectus, The Atlantic, ESPN.com, and various ill-remembered Phillies blogs. Follow him on Twitter, if you must, @MichaelBaumann.